Game quality
What each result was worth beyond the score. Every play is graded by EPA (expected points added), then adjusted for who it came against: a defence's rating is what it allowed to everyone else that season, so a big day against a bad defence counts for less. Season views include playoff games.
Kenny Pickett — 2022
Adj EPA / dropback
-0.011
Raw EPA / dropback
-0.021
Dropbacks
417
Turnover EPA
-35.3
WPA
+0.47
| Week | Opp | Dropbacks | Adj EPA/db | Raw EPA/db | Schedule | Total adj EPA | INT / FL | Turnover EPA | Sacks | Sack EPA | WPA | CPOE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | NYJ | 13 | +0.085 | +0.110 | -0.024 | +1.1 | 3 / 0 | -7.4 | 0 | +0.0 | -0.10 | +20.7 |
| 5 | BUF | 55 | +0.024 | -0.041 | +0.065 | +1.3 | 1 / 0 | -0.9 | 3 | -3.5 | +0.02 | +1.4 |
| 6 | TB | 19 | -0.128 | -0.143 | +0.015 | -2.4 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 1 | -2.2 | -0.11 | +1.2 |
| 7 | MIA | 45 | -0.117 | -0.124 | +0.007 | -5.3 | 3 / 0 | -11.6 | 2 | -2.2 | -0.10 | +8.5 |
| 8 | PHI | 44 | -0.315 | -0.357 | +0.042 | -13.9 | 1 / 1 | -9.6 | 6 | -12.8 | -0.15 | -1.0 |
| 10 | NO | 36 | +0.000 | -0.073 | +0.073 | +0.0 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 6 | -8.3 | -0.09 | +3.5 |
| 11 | CIN | 44 | -0.034 | -0.050 | +0.016 | -1.5 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 2 | -2.3 | -0.11 | +2.7 |
| 12 | IND | 32 | -0.010 | -0.000 | -0.010 | -0.3 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 3 | -5.8 | +0.15 | -0.3 |
| 13 | ATL | 28 | +0.253 | +0.326 | -0.073 | +7.1 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 0 | +0.0 | +0.19 | -4.9 |
| 14 | BAL | 2 | -1.981 | -1.946 | -0.035 | -4.0 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 1 | -2.3 | -0.07 | -67.0 |
| 16 | LV | 39 | -0.043 | +0.035 | -0.078 | -1.7 | 1 / 0 | -5.9 | 0 | +0.0 | +0.30 | +1.8 |
| 17 | BAL | 29 | +0.109 | +0.143 | -0.035 | +3.2 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 2 | -3.0 | +0.30 | -1.5 |
| 18 | CLE | 31 | +0.373 | +0.328 | +0.045 | +11.6 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 1 | -1.3 | +0.21 | -13.0 |
Opponent adjustment. A unit's rating for a game is its average over its other games that
season, blended with 16 games' worth of prior (league average plus half of last season's gap from it;
24 games for pass defence, which is noisier). Early in a season that leans on last year; by
midseason it is mostly this year. Chosen by how well it predicts a held-out game: it cut that error by about
a quarter against no shrinkage, and adjusted numbers agree between odd and even weeks more than raw ones do
(team EPA margin r 0.52 → 0.55, defence 0.32 → 0.36, QB EPA/dropback 0.47 → 0.49, 2016–2025).
Win expectancy is a logistic fit of wins on EPA margin over 6,036 completed games (it names the winner 86.5% of the time). These describe what happened; one game is not a forecast. Play-by-play credits the quarterback with every sack and dropback, so a bad line shows up in his numbers. Seasons 2016–2026, built 2026-09-14 01:25 UTC, from nflverse. Write-up:
Win expectancy is a logistic fit of wins on EPA margin over 6,036 completed games (it names the winner 86.5% of the time). These describe what happened; one game is not a forecast. Play-by-play credits the quarterback with every sack and dropback, so a bad line shows up in his numbers. Seasons 2016–2026, built 2026-09-14 01:25 UTC, from nflverse. Write-up:
backtests/nfl_game_quality/FINDINGS.md.