Game quality
What each result was worth beyond the score. Every play is graded by EPA (expected points added), then adjusted for who it came against: a defence's rating is what it allowed to everyone else that season, so a big day against a bad defence counts for less. Season views include playoff games.
Kenny Pickett — 2023
Adj EPA / dropback
-0.095
Raw EPA / dropback
-0.118
Dropbacks
347
Turnover EPA
-17.2
WPA
-0.69
| Week | Opp | Dropbacks | Adj EPA/db | Raw EPA/db | Schedule | Total adj EPA | INT / FL | Turnover EPA | Sacks | Sack EPA | WPA | CPOE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | SF | 50 | -0.335 | -0.395 | +0.061 | -16.7 | 2 / 0 | -8.7 | 5 | -8.0 | -0.25 | +2.1 |
| 2 | CLE | 32 | -0.146 | -0.243 | +0.097 | -4.7 | 1 / 0 | -4.5 | 2 | -3.3 | -0.37 | -15.3 |
| 3 | LV | 29 | +0.182 | +0.204 | -0.022 | +5.3 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 1 | -2.4 | +0.14 | -10.1 |
| 4 | HOU | 26 | -0.520 | -0.524 | +0.005 | -13.5 | 1 / 0 | -4.0 | 3 | -6.8 | -0.25 | +2.0 |
| 5 | BAL | 36 | +0.164 | +0.086 | +0.078 | +5.9 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 3 | -6.6 | +0.24 | -6.0 |
| 7 | LA | 27 | +0.003 | +0.024 | -0.021 | +0.1 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 2 | -3.7 | -0.01 | +4.6 |
| 8 | JAX | 17 | -0.390 | -0.376 | -0.014 | -6.6 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 1 | -1.7 | -0.15 | +7.5 |
| 9 | TEN | 30 | +0.072 | +0.112 | -0.039 | +2.2 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 0 | +0.0 | +0.25 | -3.2 |
| 10 | GB | 24 | -0.251 | -0.237 | -0.014 | -6.0 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 1 | -1.5 | -0.17 | -6.9 |
| 11 | CLE | 31 | -0.289 | -0.384 | +0.094 | -9.0 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 3 | -5.6 | -0.59 | -8.5 |
| 12 | CIN | 35 | +0.330 | +0.336 | -0.006 | +11.6 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 2 | -2.3 | +0.43 | +9.2 |
| 13 | ARI | 10 | -0.129 | -0.048 | -0.081 | -1.3 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 0 | +0.0 | +0.04 | +5.5 |
Opponent adjustment. A unit's rating for a game is its average over its other games that
season, blended with 16 games' worth of prior (league average plus half of last season's gap from it;
24 games for pass defence, which is noisier). Early in a season that leans on last year; by
midseason it is mostly this year. Chosen by how well it predicts a held-out game: it cut that error by about
a quarter against no shrinkage, and adjusted numbers agree between odd and even weeks more than raw ones do
(team EPA margin r 0.52 → 0.55, defence 0.32 → 0.36, QB EPA/dropback 0.47 → 0.49, 2016–2025).
Win expectancy is a logistic fit of wins on EPA margin over 6,036 completed games (it names the winner 86.5% of the time). These describe what happened; one game is not a forecast. Play-by-play credits the quarterback with every sack and dropback, so a bad line shows up in his numbers. Seasons 2016–2026, built 2026-09-14 01:25 UTC, from nflverse. Write-up:
Win expectancy is a logistic fit of wins on EPA margin over 6,036 completed games (it names the winner 86.5% of the time). These describe what happened; one game is not a forecast. Play-by-play credits the quarterback with every sack and dropback, so a bad line shows up in his numbers. Seasons 2016–2026, built 2026-09-14 01:25 UTC, from nflverse. Write-up:
backtests/nfl_game_quality/FINDINGS.md.