Game quality
What each result was worth beyond the score. Every play is graded by EPA (expected points added), then adjusted for who it came against: a defence's rating is what it allowed to everyone else that season, so a big day against a bad defence counts for less. Season views include playoff games.
Kenny Pickett — 2024
Adj EPA / dropback
-0.017
Raw EPA / dropback
+0.015
Dropbacks
47
Turnover EPA
-4.1
WPA
+0.24
| Week | Opp | Dropbacks | Adj EPA/db | Raw EPA/db | Schedule | Total adj EPA | INT / FL | Turnover EPA | Sacks | Sack EPA | WPA | CPOE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | NYG | 2 | -0.891 | -0.838 | -0.053 | -1.8 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 1 | -0.6 | -0.00 | -47.5 |
| 10 | DAL | 2 | -0.687 | -0.660 | -0.027 | -1.4 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 0 | +0.0 | -0.00 | -9.0 |
| 16 | WAS | 27 | -0.071 | -0.023 | -0.048 | -1.9 | 1 / 0 | -4.1 | 3 | -4.2 | +0.08 | -0.7 |
| 17 | DAL | 15 | +0.463 | +0.469 | -0.007 | +6.9 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 0 | +0.0 | +0.17 | +7.1 |
| 22 | KC | 1 | -2.692 | -2.720 | +0.028 | -2.7 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 0 | +0.0 | +0.00 | -67.6 |
Opponent adjustment. A unit's rating for a game is its average over its other games that
season, blended with 16 games' worth of prior (league average plus half of last season's gap from it;
24 games for pass defence, which is noisier). Early in a season that leans on last year; by
midseason it is mostly this year. Chosen by how well it predicts a held-out game: it cut that error by about
a quarter against no shrinkage, and adjusted numbers agree between odd and even weeks more than raw ones do
(team EPA margin r 0.52 → 0.55, defence 0.32 → 0.36, QB EPA/dropback 0.47 → 0.49, 2016–2025).
Win expectancy is a logistic fit of wins on EPA margin over 6,036 completed games (it names the winner 86.5% of the time). These describe what happened; one game is not a forecast. Play-by-play credits the quarterback with every sack and dropback, so a bad line shows up in his numbers. Seasons 2016–2026, built 2026-09-14 01:25 UTC, from nflverse. Write-up:
Win expectancy is a logistic fit of wins on EPA margin over 6,036 completed games (it names the winner 86.5% of the time). These describe what happened; one game is not a forecast. Play-by-play credits the quarterback with every sack and dropback, so a bad line shows up in his numbers. Seasons 2016–2026, built 2026-09-14 01:25 UTC, from nflverse. Write-up:
backtests/nfl_game_quality/FINDINGS.md.