Game quality
What each result was worth beyond the score. Every play is graded by EPA (expected points added), then adjusted for who it came against: a defence's rating is what it allowed to everyone else that season, so a big day against a bad defence counts for less. Season views include playoff games.
Kenny Pickett — 2025
Adj EPA / dropback
-0.489
Raw EPA / dropback
-0.550
Dropbacks
52
Turnover EPA
-9.6
WPA
-0.58
| Week | Opp | Dropbacks | Adj EPA/db | Raw EPA/db | Schedule | Total adj EPA | INT / FL | Turnover EPA | Sacks | Sack EPA | WPA | CPOE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | KC | 2 | -0.380 | -0.377 | -0.003 | -0.8 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 0 | +0.0 | -0.00 | +19.1 |
| 10 | DEN | 1 | -0.896 | -0.985 | +0.089 | -0.9 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 0 | +0.0 | -0.04 | -73.8 |
| 14 | DEN | 11 | +0.287 | +0.187 | +0.100 | +3.2 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 1 | -1.1 | -0.08 | +13.2 |
| 15 | PHI | 29 | -0.503 | -0.577 | +0.073 | -14.6 | 1 / 0 | -4.3 | 4 | -3.7 | -0.21 | -10.1 |
| 17 | NYG | 3 | -0.501 | -0.447 | -0.055 | -1.5 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 1 | -1.6 | -0.00 | +31.5 |
| 18 | KC | 6 | -1.806 | -1.806 | +0.000 | -10.8 | 1 / 0 | -5.3 | 2 | -3.5 | -0.26 | -48.2 |
Opponent adjustment. A unit's rating for a game is its average over its other games that
season, blended with 16 games' worth of prior (league average plus half of last season's gap from it;
24 games for pass defence, which is noisier). Early in a season that leans on last year; by
midseason it is mostly this year. Chosen by how well it predicts a held-out game: it cut that error by about
a quarter against no shrinkage, and adjusted numbers agree between odd and even weeks more than raw ones do
(team EPA margin r 0.52 → 0.55, defence 0.32 → 0.36, QB EPA/dropback 0.47 → 0.49, 2016–2025).
Win expectancy is a logistic fit of wins on EPA margin over 6,036 completed games (it names the winner 86.5% of the time). These describe what happened; one game is not a forecast. Play-by-play credits the quarterback with every sack and dropback, so a bad line shows up in his numbers. Seasons 2016–2026, built 2026-09-14 01:25 UTC, from nflverse. Write-up:
Win expectancy is a logistic fit of wins on EPA margin over 6,036 completed games (it names the winner 86.5% of the time). These describe what happened; one game is not a forecast. Play-by-play credits the quarterback with every sack and dropback, so a bad line shows up in his numbers. Seasons 2016–2026, built 2026-09-14 01:25 UTC, from nflverse. Write-up:
backtests/nfl_game_quality/FINDINGS.md.