Game quality
What each result was worth beyond the score. Every play is graded by EPA (expected points added), then adjusted for who it came against: a defence's rating is what it allowed to everyone else that season, so a big day against a bad defence counts for less. Season views include playoff games.
Bailey Zappe — 2023
Adj EPA / dropback
-0.332
Raw EPA / dropback
-0.348
Dropbacks
236
Turnover EPA
-45.1
WPA
-2.05
| Week | Opp | Dropbacks | Adj EPA/db | Raw EPA/db | Schedule | Total adj EPA | INT / FL | Turnover EPA | Sacks | Sack EPA | WPA | CPOE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | DAL | 10 | -0.281 | -0.300 | +0.019 | -2.8 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 1 | -1.5 | +0.00 | -12.9 |
| 5 | NO | 9 | -0.806 | -0.841 | +0.035 | -7.3 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 0 | +0.0 | +0.00 | -24.6 |
| 10 | IND | 7 | -0.132 | -0.118 | -0.014 | -0.9 | 1 / 0 | -0.7 | 0 | +0.0 | -0.21 | -16.6 |
| 12 | NYG | 15 | -0.441 | -0.428 | -0.013 | -6.6 | 1 / 0 | -5.0 | 1 | -1.3 | -0.22 | -14.3 |
| 13 | LAC | 30 | -0.546 | -0.524 | -0.022 | -16.4 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 5 | -11.2 | -0.62 | -11.2 |
| 14 | PIT | 30 | +0.035 | +0.043 | -0.008 | +1.1 | 1 / 0 | -7.1 | 2 | -3.1 | +0.01 | +4.4 |
| 15 | KC | 35 | -0.318 | -0.369 | +0.051 | -11.1 | 1 / 0 | -6.4 | 4 | -5.7 | -0.03 | +1.5 |
| 16 | DEN | 34 | +0.066 | +0.086 | -0.020 | +2.3 | 0 / 1 | -6.5 | 2 | -8.0 | +0.50 | +13.4 |
| 17 | BUF | 29 | -0.388 | -0.417 | +0.028 | -11.3 | 3 / 0 | -17.7 | 3 | -4.8 | -0.53 | +1.8 |
| 18 | NYJ | 37 | -0.684 | -0.750 | +0.066 | -25.3 | 2 / 0 | -1.7 | 7 | -12.0 | -0.97 | -21.4 |
Opponent adjustment. A unit's rating for a game is its average over its other games that
season, blended with 16 games' worth of prior (league average plus half of last season's gap from it;
24 games for pass defence, which is noisier). Early in a season that leans on last year; by
midseason it is mostly this year. Chosen by how well it predicts a held-out game: it cut that error by about
a quarter against no shrinkage, and adjusted numbers agree between odd and even weeks more than raw ones do
(team EPA margin r 0.52 → 0.55, defence 0.32 → 0.36, QB EPA/dropback 0.47 → 0.49, 2016–2025).
Win expectancy is a logistic fit of wins on EPA margin over 6,036 completed games (it names the winner 86.5% of the time). These describe what happened; one game is not a forecast. Play-by-play credits the quarterback with every sack and dropback, so a bad line shows up in his numbers. Seasons 2016–2026, built 2026-09-14 01:25 UTC, from nflverse. Write-up:
Win expectancy is a logistic fit of wins on EPA margin over 6,036 completed games (it names the winner 86.5% of the time). These describe what happened; one game is not a forecast. Play-by-play credits the quarterback with every sack and dropback, so a bad line shows up in his numbers. Seasons 2016–2026, built 2026-09-14 01:25 UTC, from nflverse. Write-up:
backtests/nfl_game_quality/FINDINGS.md.