Game quality
What each result was worth beyond the score. Every play is graded by EPA (expected points added), then adjusted for who it came against: a defence's rating is what it allowed to everyone else that season, so a big day against a bad defence counts for less. Season views include playoff games.
Desmond Ridder — 2022
Adj EPA / dropback
+0.043
Raw EPA / dropback
+0.037
Dropbacks
124
Turnover EPA
-5.6
WPA
-0.11
| Week | Opp | Dropbacks | Adj EPA/db | Raw EPA/db | Schedule | Total adj EPA | INT / FL | Turnover EPA | Sacks | Sack EPA | WPA | CPOE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 | NO | 30 | -0.125 | -0.194 | +0.069 | -3.7 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 4 | -3.6 | -0.38 | -19.5 |
| 16 | BAL | 35 | +0.076 | +0.112 | -0.037 | +2.7 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 2 | -2.5 | -0.13 | +2.7 |
| 17 | ARI | 27 | -0.021 | -0.007 | -0.014 | -0.6 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 1 | -1.8 | +0.12 | +3.5 |
| 18 | TB | 32 | +0.219 | +0.206 | +0.013 | +7.0 | 0 / 1 | -5.6 | 2 | -7.2 | +0.29 | +6.8 |
Opponent adjustment. A unit's rating for a game is its average over its other games that
season, blended with 16 games' worth of prior (league average plus half of last season's gap from it;
24 games for pass defence, which is noisier). Early in a season that leans on last year; by
midseason it is mostly this year. Chosen by how well it predicts a held-out game: it cut that error by about
a quarter against no shrinkage, and adjusted numbers agree between odd and even weeks more than raw ones do
(team EPA margin r 0.52 → 0.55, defence 0.32 → 0.36, QB EPA/dropback 0.47 → 0.49, 2016–2025).
Win expectancy is a logistic fit of wins on EPA margin over 6,036 completed games (it names the winner 86.5% of the time). These describe what happened; one game is not a forecast. Play-by-play credits the quarterback with every sack and dropback, so a bad line shows up in his numbers. Seasons 2016–2026, built 2026-09-14 01:25 UTC, from nflverse. Write-up:
Win expectancy is a logistic fit of wins on EPA margin over 6,036 completed games (it names the winner 86.5% of the time). These describe what happened; one game is not a forecast. Play-by-play credits the quarterback with every sack and dropback, so a bad line shows up in his numbers. Seasons 2016–2026, built 2026-09-14 01:25 UTC, from nflverse. Write-up:
backtests/nfl_game_quality/FINDINGS.md.