Game quality
What each result was worth beyond the score. Every play is graded by EPA (expected points added), then adjusted for who it came against: a defence's rating is what it allowed to everyone else that season, so a big day against a bad defence counts for less. Season views include playoff games.
Desmond Ridder — 2023
Adj EPA / dropback
-0.088
Raw EPA / dropback
-0.076
Dropbacks
420
Turnover EPA
-79.0
WPA
+0.12
| Week | Opp | Dropbacks | Adj EPA/db | Raw EPA/db | Schedule | Total adj EPA | INT / FL | Turnover EPA | Sacks | Sack EPA | WPA | CPOE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | CAR | 22 | -0.210 | -0.202 | -0.008 | -4.6 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 4 | -5.2 | -0.09 | +6.4 |
| 2 | GB | 33 | +0.087 | +0.095 | -0.007 | +2.9 | 1 / 0 | -4.2 | 1 | -1.1 | +0.18 | -4.1 |
| 3 | DET | 45 | -0.395 | -0.326 | -0.069 | -17.8 | 0 / 1 | -5.2 | 7 | -12.4 | -0.22 | -14.2 |
| 4 | JAX | 35 | -0.572 | -0.552 | -0.021 | -20.0 | 2 / 1 | -19.0 | 4 | -9.5 | -0.29 | -1.6 |
| 5 | HOU | 38 | +0.424 | +0.399 | +0.024 | +16.1 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 0 | +0.0 | +0.65 | +7.6 |
| 6 | WAS | 49 | -0.232 | -0.163 | -0.069 | -11.4 | 3 / 0 | -13.5 | 3 | -4.5 | -0.27 | -3.2 |
| 7 | TB | 26 | +0.251 | +0.272 | -0.020 | +6.5 | 0 / 1 | -3.1 | 1 | -3.1 | +0.30 | +15.3 |
| 8 | TEN | 17 | -0.677 | -0.632 | -0.045 | -11.5 | 0 / 1 | -5.3 | 5 | -11.1 | -0.26 | -2.8 |
| 10 | ARI | 7 | +0.130 | +0.220 | -0.089 | +0.9 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 0 | +0.0 | +0.01 | +11.2 |
| 12 | NO | 21 | -0.075 | -0.131 | +0.056 | -1.6 | 2 / 0 | -10.2 | 0 | +0.0 | -0.02 | -4.0 |
| 13 | NYJ | 30 | -0.044 | -0.126 | +0.082 | -1.3 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 3 | -4.6 | -0.16 | -11.2 |
| 14 | TB | 43 | -0.084 | -0.055 | -0.029 | -3.6 | 1 / 0 | -6.0 | 3 | -4.6 | -0.13 | -3.3 |
| 15 | CAR | 20 | +0.156 | +0.156 | +0.000 | +3.1 | 1 / 0 | -4.3 | 0 | +0.0 | +0.05 | -2.9 |
| 17 | CHI | 4 | -0.748 | -0.690 | -0.058 | -3.0 | 1 / 0 | -3.6 | 0 | +0.0 | -0.00 | +2.0 |
| 18 | NO | 30 | +0.282 | +0.229 | +0.053 | +8.5 | 1 / 0 | -4.5 | 0 | +0.0 | +0.35 | +3.5 |
Opponent adjustment. A unit's rating for a game is its average over its other games that
season, blended with 16 games' worth of prior (league average plus half of last season's gap from it;
24 games for pass defence, which is noisier). Early in a season that leans on last year; by
midseason it is mostly this year. Chosen by how well it predicts a held-out game: it cut that error by about
a quarter against no shrinkage, and adjusted numbers agree between odd and even weeks more than raw ones do
(team EPA margin r 0.52 → 0.55, defence 0.32 → 0.36, QB EPA/dropback 0.47 → 0.49, 2016–2025).
Win expectancy is a logistic fit of wins on EPA margin over 6,036 completed games (it names the winner 86.5% of the time). These describe what happened; one game is not a forecast. Play-by-play credits the quarterback with every sack and dropback, so a bad line shows up in his numbers. Seasons 2016–2026, built 2026-09-14 01:25 UTC, from nflverse. Write-up:
Win expectancy is a logistic fit of wins on EPA margin over 6,036 completed games (it names the winner 86.5% of the time). These describe what happened; one game is not a forecast. Play-by-play credits the quarterback with every sack and dropback, so a bad line shows up in his numbers. Seasons 2016–2026, built 2026-09-14 01:25 UTC, from nflverse. Write-up:
backtests/nfl_game_quality/FINDINGS.md.