Game quality
What each result was worth beyond the score. Every play is graded by EPA (expected points added), then adjusted for who it came against: a defence's rating is what it allowed to everyone else that season, so a big day against a bad defence counts for less. Season views include playoff games.
Malik Willis — 2022
Adj EPA / dropback
-0.565
Raw EPA / dropback
-0.547
Dropbacks
71
Turnover EPA
-12.6
WPA
-1.54
| Week | Opp | Dropbacks | Adj EPA/db | Raw EPA/db | Schedule | Total adj EPA | INT / FL | Turnover EPA | Sacks | Sack EPA | WPA | CPOE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | BUF | 4 | -0.429 | -0.485 | +0.056 | -1.7 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 0 | +0.0 | +0.00 | -41.8 |
| 8 | HOU | 13 | -0.855 | -0.817 | -0.038 | -11.1 | 1 / 0 | -6.4 | 3 | -4.2 | -0.22 | +1.7 |
| 9 | KC | 19 | -0.310 | -0.293 | -0.017 | -5.9 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 3 | -2.7 | -0.52 | -21.8 |
| 13 | PHI | 4 | -0.730 | -0.773 | +0.044 | -2.9 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 0 | +0.0 | -0.00 | -19.0 |
| 15 | LAC | 4 | -0.088 | -0.101 | +0.013 | -0.4 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 0 | +0.0 | -0.01 | -0.5 |
| 16 | HOU | 27 | -0.672 | -0.638 | -0.034 | -18.1 | 2 / 0 | -6.2 | 4 | -5.2 | -0.79 | -3.8 |
Opponent adjustment. A unit's rating for a game is its average over its other games that
season, blended with 16 games' worth of prior (league average plus half of last season's gap from it;
24 games for pass defence, which is noisier). Early in a season that leans on last year; by
midseason it is mostly this year. Chosen by how well it predicts a held-out game: it cut that error by about
a quarter against no shrinkage, and adjusted numbers agree between odd and even weeks more than raw ones do
(team EPA margin r 0.52 → 0.55, defence 0.32 → 0.36, QB EPA/dropback 0.47 → 0.49, 2016–2025).
Win expectancy is a logistic fit of wins on EPA margin over 6,036 completed games (it names the winner 86.5% of the time). These describe what happened; one game is not a forecast. Play-by-play credits the quarterback with every sack and dropback, so a bad line shows up in his numbers. Seasons 2016–2026, built 2026-09-14 01:25 UTC, from nflverse. Write-up:
Win expectancy is a logistic fit of wins on EPA margin over 6,036 completed games (it names the winner 86.5% of the time). These describe what happened; one game is not a forecast. Play-by-play credits the quarterback with every sack and dropback, so a bad line shows up in his numbers. Seasons 2016–2026, built 2026-09-14 01:25 UTC, from nflverse. Write-up:
backtests/nfl_game_quality/FINDINGS.md.