Game quality
What each result was worth beyond the score. Every play is graded by EPA (expected points added), then adjusted for who it came against: a defence's rating is what it allowed to everyone else that season, so a big day against a bad defence counts for less. Season views include playoff games.
Malik Willis — 2024
Adj EPA / dropback
+0.227
Raw EPA / dropback
+0.243
Dropbacks
63
Turnover EPA
-6.4
WPA
+0.26
| Week | Opp | Dropbacks | Adj EPA/db | Raw EPA/db | Schedule | Total adj EPA | INT / FL | Turnover EPA | Sacks | Sack EPA | WPA | CPOE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | PHI | 2 | -0.178 | -0.219 | +0.040 | -0.4 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 1 | -0.3 | -0.18 | -79.1 |
| 2 | IND | 14 | +0.620 | +0.642 | -0.022 | +8.7 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 0 | +0.0 | +0.06 | +20.8 |
| 3 | TEN | 22 | +0.143 | +0.160 | -0.017 | +3.1 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 3 | -3.9 | +0.25 | -1.2 |
| 8 | JAX | 6 | +0.464 | +0.526 | -0.062 | +2.8 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 1 | -1.0 | +0.29 | +9.1 |
| 16 | NO | 2 | +1.455 | +1.418 | +0.037 | +2.9 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 0 | +0.0 | -0.00 | -1.3 |
| 18 | CHI | 17 | -0.167 | -0.162 | -0.005 | -2.8 | 0 / 1 | -6.4 | 3 | -8.7 | -0.16 | +11.9 |
Opponent adjustment. A unit's rating for a game is its average over its other games that
season, blended with 16 games' worth of prior (league average plus half of last season's gap from it;
24 games for pass defence, which is noisier). Early in a season that leans on last year; by
midseason it is mostly this year. Chosen by how well it predicts a held-out game: it cut that error by about
a quarter against no shrinkage, and adjusted numbers agree between odd and even weeks more than raw ones do
(team EPA margin r 0.52 → 0.55, defence 0.32 → 0.36, QB EPA/dropback 0.47 → 0.49, 2016–2025).
Win expectancy is a logistic fit of wins on EPA margin over 6,036 completed games (it names the winner 86.5% of the time). These describe what happened; one game is not a forecast. Play-by-play credits the quarterback with every sack and dropback, so a bad line shows up in his numbers. Seasons 2016–2026, built 2026-09-14 01:25 UTC, from nflverse. Write-up:
Win expectancy is a logistic fit of wins on EPA margin over 6,036 completed games (it names the winner 86.5% of the time). These describe what happened; one game is not a forecast. Play-by-play credits the quarterback with every sack and dropback, so a bad line shows up in his numbers. Seasons 2016–2026, built 2026-09-14 01:25 UTC, from nflverse. Write-up:
backtests/nfl_game_quality/FINDINGS.md.