Game quality
What each result was worth beyond the score. Every play is graded by EPA (expected points added), then adjusted for who it came against: a defence's rating is what it allowed to everyone else that season, so a big day against a bad defence counts for less. Season views include playoff games.
Malik Willis — 2025
Adj EPA / dropback
+0.752
Raw EPA / dropback
+0.739
Dropbacks
38
Turnover EPA
+0.0
WPA
+0.90
| Week | Opp | Dropbacks | Adj EPA/db | Raw EPA/db | Schedule | Total adj EPA | INT / FL | Turnover EPA | Sacks | Sack EPA | WPA | CPOE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | NYG | 2 | +0.996 | +1.036 | -0.040 | +2.0 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 0 | +0.0 | +0.11 | +40.0 |
| 12 | MIN | 1 | +0.477 | +0.370 | +0.107 | +0.5 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 0 | +0.0 | +0.00 | +18.3 |
| 16 | CHI | 13 | +0.588 | +0.580 | +0.007 | +7.6 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 2 | -1.3 | +0.32 | +20.3 |
| 17 | BAL | 22 | +0.839 | +0.823 | +0.016 | +18.5 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 1 | -2.0 | +0.48 | +21.3 |
Opponent adjustment. A unit's rating for a game is its average over its other games that
season, blended with 16 games' worth of prior (league average plus half of last season's gap from it;
24 games for pass defence, which is noisier). Early in a season that leans on last year; by
midseason it is mostly this year. Chosen by how well it predicts a held-out game: it cut that error by about
a quarter against no shrinkage, and adjusted numbers agree between odd and even weeks more than raw ones do
(team EPA margin r 0.52 → 0.55, defence 0.32 → 0.36, QB EPA/dropback 0.47 → 0.49, 2016–2025).
Win expectancy is a logistic fit of wins on EPA margin over 6,036 completed games (it names the winner 86.5% of the time). These describe what happened; one game is not a forecast. Play-by-play credits the quarterback with every sack and dropback, so a bad line shows up in his numbers. Seasons 2016–2026, built 2026-09-14 01:25 UTC, from nflverse. Write-up:
Win expectancy is a logistic fit of wins on EPA margin over 6,036 completed games (it names the winner 86.5% of the time). These describe what happened; one game is not a forecast. Play-by-play credits the quarterback with every sack and dropback, so a bad line shows up in his numbers. Seasons 2016–2026, built 2026-09-14 01:25 UTC, from nflverse. Write-up:
backtests/nfl_game_quality/FINDINGS.md.