Game quality
What each result was worth beyond the score. Every play is graded by EPA (expected points added), then adjusted for who it came against: a defence's rating is what it allowed to everyone else that season, so a big day against a bad defence counts for less. Season views include playoff games.
Tyson Bagent — 2023
Adj EPA / dropback
-0.179
Raw EPA / dropback
-0.177
Dropbacks
149
Turnover EPA
-39.1
WPA
-0.47
| Week | Opp | Dropbacks | Adj EPA/db | Raw EPA/db | Schedule | Total adj EPA | INT / FL | Turnover EPA | Sacks | Sack EPA | WPA | CPOE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | MIN | 15 | -1.141 | -1.106 | -0.035 | -17.1 | 1 / 1 | -15.0 | 1 | -10.1 | -0.52 | +3.9 |
| 7 | LV | 30 | +0.160 | +0.184 | -0.023 | +4.8 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 1 | -0.6 | +0.11 | -1.4 |
| 8 | LAC | 39 | -0.265 | -0.245 | -0.019 | -10.3 | 2 / 0 | -7.2 | 1 | -2.2 | -0.01 | -4.4 |
| 9 | NO | 32 | -0.057 | -0.115 | +0.058 | -1.8 | 3 / 1 | -16.9 | 2 | -5.5 | -0.04 | -2.3 |
| 10 | CAR | 33 | -0.065 | -0.061 | -0.004 | -2.2 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 0 | +0.0 | +0.00 | -4.0 |
Opponent adjustment. A unit's rating for a game is its average over its other games that
season, blended with 16 games' worth of prior (league average plus half of last season's gap from it;
24 games for pass defence, which is noisier). Early in a season that leans on last year; by
midseason it is mostly this year. Chosen by how well it predicts a held-out game: it cut that error by about
a quarter against no shrinkage, and adjusted numbers agree between odd and even weeks more than raw ones do
(team EPA margin r 0.52 → 0.55, defence 0.32 → 0.36, QB EPA/dropback 0.47 → 0.49, 2016–2025).
Win expectancy is a logistic fit of wins on EPA margin over 6,036 completed games (it names the winner 86.5% of the time). These describe what happened; one game is not a forecast. Play-by-play credits the quarterback with every sack and dropback, so a bad line shows up in his numbers. Seasons 2016–2026, built 2026-09-14 01:25 UTC, from nflverse. Write-up:
Win expectancy is a logistic fit of wins on EPA margin over 6,036 completed games (it names the winner 86.5% of the time). These describe what happened; one game is not a forecast. Play-by-play credits the quarterback with every sack and dropback, so a bad line shows up in his numbers. Seasons 2016–2026, built 2026-09-14 01:25 UTC, from nflverse. Write-up:
backtests/nfl_game_quality/FINDINGS.md.