Game quality
What each result was worth beyond the score. Every play is graded by EPA (expected points added), then adjusted for who it came against: a defence's rating is what it allowed to everyone else that season, so a big day against a bad defence counts for less. Season views include playoff games.
Tommy DeVito — 2023
Adj EPA / dropback
-0.225
Raw EPA / dropback
-0.229
Dropbacks
215
Turnover EPA
-12.4
WPA
-0.85
| Week | Opp | Dropbacks | Adj EPA/db | Raw EPA/db | Schedule | Total adj EPA | INT / FL | Turnover EPA | Sacks | Sack EPA | WPA | CPOE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | NYJ | 9 | -0.707 | -0.772 | +0.065 | -6.4 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 2 | -1.9 | -0.41 | -46.9 |
| 9 | LV | 26 | -0.613 | -0.572 | -0.041 | -15.9 | 2 / 0 | -9.6 | 6 | -8.9 | -0.13 | +3.2 |
| 10 | DAL | 32 | -0.348 | -0.372 | +0.024 | -11.1 | 1 / 0 | -2.8 | 5 | -7.5 | -0.15 | -12.8 |
| 11 | WAS | 35 | +0.045 | +0.109 | -0.064 | +1.6 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 9 | -11.8 | +0.11 | +3.5 |
| 12 | NE | 31 | -0.026 | -0.059 | +0.032 | -0.8 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 6 | -7.7 | -0.21 | +0.5 |
| 14 | GB | 21 | +0.242 | +0.247 | -0.005 | +5.1 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 0 | +0.0 | +0.38 | +15.6 |
| 15 | NO | 41 | -0.310 | -0.357 | +0.047 | -12.7 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 7 | -11.5 | -0.32 | -9.2 |
| 16 | PHI | 17 | -0.393 | -0.392 | -0.001 | -6.7 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 1 | -1.3 | -0.11 | -9.2 |
| 18 | PHI | 3 | -0.478 | -0.483 | +0.005 | -1.4 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 1 | -0.6 | -0.03 | +26.6 |
Opponent adjustment. A unit's rating for a game is its average over its other games that
season, blended with 16 games' worth of prior (league average plus half of last season's gap from it;
24 games for pass defence, which is noisier). Early in a season that leans on last year; by
midseason it is mostly this year. Chosen by how well it predicts a held-out game: it cut that error by about
a quarter against no shrinkage, and adjusted numbers agree between odd and even weeks more than raw ones do
(team EPA margin r 0.52 → 0.55, defence 0.32 → 0.36, QB EPA/dropback 0.47 → 0.49, 2016–2025).
Win expectancy is a logistic fit of wins on EPA margin over 6,036 completed games (it names the winner 86.5% of the time). These describe what happened; one game is not a forecast. Play-by-play credits the quarterback with every sack and dropback, so a bad line shows up in his numbers. Seasons 2016–2026, built 2026-09-14 01:25 UTC, from nflverse. Write-up:
Win expectancy is a logistic fit of wins on EPA margin over 6,036 completed games (it names the winner 86.5% of the time). These describe what happened; one game is not a forecast. Play-by-play credits the quarterback with every sack and dropback, so a bad line shows up in his numbers. Seasons 2016–2026, built 2026-09-14 01:25 UTC, from nflverse. Write-up:
backtests/nfl_game_quality/FINDINGS.md.