Game quality
What each result was worth beyond the score. Every play is graded by EPA (expected points added), then adjusted for who it came against: a defence's rating is what it allowed to everyone else that season, so a big day against a bad defence counts for less. Season views include playoff games.
Aidan O'Connell — 2023
Adj EPA / dropback
-0.047
Raw EPA / dropback
-0.048
Dropbacks
367
Turnover EPA
-39.6
WPA
-1.56
| Week | Opp | Dropbacks | Adj EPA/db | Raw EPA/db | Schedule | Total adj EPA | INT / FL | Turnover EPA | Sacks | Sack EPA | WPA | CPOE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | LAC | 46 | -0.275 | -0.256 | -0.020 | -12.7 | 1 / 2 | -17.2 | 7 | -19.8 | -0.37 | -8.1 |
| 7 | CHI | 14 | +0.156 | +0.218 | -0.062 | +2.2 | 1 / 0 | -2.5 | 0 | +0.0 | -0.00 | +10.2 |
| 9 | NYG | 25 | +0.310 | +0.304 | +0.005 | +7.7 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 0 | +0.0 | +0.11 | -6.5 |
| 10 | NYJ | 30 | -0.250 | -0.327 | +0.077 | -7.5 | 1 / 0 | -4.9 | 3 | -5.0 | -0.17 | -8.6 |
| 11 | MIA | 43 | -0.254 | -0.223 | -0.032 | -10.9 | 3 / 0 | -10.4 | 2 | -3.2 | -0.42 | -2.1 |
| 12 | KC | 34 | +0.189 | +0.127 | +0.061 | +6.4 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 1 | -1.8 | +0.28 | -2.8 |
| 14 | MIN | 36 | -0.562 | -0.533 | -0.029 | -20.2 | 1 / 0 | -4.5 | 4 | -6.0 | -1.00 | -6.5 |
| 15 | LAC | 35 | +0.299 | +0.304 | -0.005 | +10.5 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 1 | -2.3 | +0.04 | -7.3 |
| 16 | KC | 23 | -0.517 | -0.564 | +0.046 | -11.9 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 2 | -3.9 | -0.26 | -16.4 |
| 17 | IND | 49 | +0.166 | +0.173 | -0.007 | +8.1 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 2 | -2.6 | +0.03 | -1.3 |
| 18 | DEN | 32 | +0.351 | +0.365 | -0.014 | +11.2 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 2 | -1.9 | +0.20 | +9.6 |
Opponent adjustment. A unit's rating for a game is its average over its other games that
season, blended with 16 games' worth of prior (league average plus half of last season's gap from it;
24 games for pass defence, which is noisier). Early in a season that leans on last year; by
midseason it is mostly this year. Chosen by how well it predicts a held-out game: it cut that error by about
a quarter against no shrinkage, and adjusted numbers agree between odd and even weeks more than raw ones do
(team EPA margin r 0.52 → 0.55, defence 0.32 → 0.36, QB EPA/dropback 0.47 → 0.49, 2016–2025).
Win expectancy is a logistic fit of wins on EPA margin over 6,036 completed games (it names the winner 86.5% of the time). These describe what happened; one game is not a forecast. Play-by-play credits the quarterback with every sack and dropback, so a bad line shows up in his numbers. Seasons 2016–2026, built 2026-09-14 01:25 UTC, from nflverse. Write-up:
Win expectancy is a logistic fit of wins on EPA margin over 6,036 completed games (it names the winner 86.5% of the time). These describe what happened; one game is not a forecast. Play-by-play credits the quarterback with every sack and dropback, so a bad line shows up in his numbers. Seasons 2016–2026, built 2026-09-14 01:25 UTC, from nflverse. Write-up:
backtests/nfl_game_quality/FINDINGS.md.