Game quality
What each result was worth beyond the score. Every play is graded by EPA (expected points added), then adjusted for who it came against: a defence's rating is what it allowed to everyone else that season, so a big day against a bad defence counts for less. Season views include playoff games.
Aidan O'Connell — 2024
Adj EPA / dropback
+0.006
Raw EPA / dropback
+0.010
Dropbacks
254
Turnover EPA
-16.6
WPA
+0.03
| Week | Opp | Dropbacks | Adj EPA/db | Raw EPA/db | Schedule | Total adj EPA | INT / FL | Turnover EPA | Sacks | Sack EPA | WPA | CPOE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | CAR | 13 | +0.372 | +0.427 | -0.056 | +4.8 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 1 | -2.3 | -0.00 | +5.4 |
| 5 | DEN | 21 | -0.246 | -0.254 | +0.008 | -5.2 | 1 / 0 | -4.1 | 1 | -1.2 | -0.04 | -9.9 |
| 6 | PIT | 42 | -0.078 | -0.091 | +0.013 | -3.3 | 1 / 0 | -3.6 | 1 | -1.7 | +0.06 | -2.3 |
| 7 | LA | 10 | -0.135 | -0.113 | -0.022 | -1.3 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 0 | +0.0 | -0.05 | +4.7 |
| 13 | KC | 37 | +0.271 | +0.250 | +0.021 | +10.0 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 3 | -5.5 | +0.33 | -1.6 |
| 14 | TB | 20 | -0.421 | -0.379 | -0.042 | -8.4 | 1 / 0 | -4.8 | 1 | -1.9 | -0.27 | -3.8 |
| 16 | JAX | 41 | -0.072 | -0.006 | -0.067 | -3.0 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 2 | -3.1 | +0.09 | -9.6 |
| 17 | NO | 36 | +0.307 | +0.268 | +0.039 | +11.1 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 1 | -1.9 | +0.18 | -9.4 |
| 18 | LAC | 34 | -0.095 | -0.114 | +0.018 | -3.2 | 1 / 0 | -4.1 | 0 | +0.0 | -0.27 | +4.4 |
Opponent adjustment. A unit's rating for a game is its average over its other games that
season, blended with 16 games' worth of prior (league average plus half of last season's gap from it;
24 games for pass defence, which is noisier). Early in a season that leans on last year; by
midseason it is mostly this year. Chosen by how well it predicts a held-out game: it cut that error by about
a quarter against no shrinkage, and adjusted numbers agree between odd and even weeks more than raw ones do
(team EPA margin r 0.52 → 0.55, defence 0.32 → 0.36, QB EPA/dropback 0.47 → 0.49, 2016–2025).
Win expectancy is a logistic fit of wins on EPA margin over 6,036 completed games (it names the winner 86.5% of the time). These describe what happened; one game is not a forecast. Play-by-play credits the quarterback with every sack and dropback, so a bad line shows up in his numbers. Seasons 2016–2026, built 2026-09-14 01:25 UTC, from nflverse. Write-up:
Win expectancy is a logistic fit of wins on EPA margin over 6,036 completed games (it names the winner 86.5% of the time). These describe what happened; one game is not a forecast. Play-by-play credits the quarterback with every sack and dropback, so a bad line shows up in his numbers. Seasons 2016–2026, built 2026-09-14 01:25 UTC, from nflverse. Write-up:
backtests/nfl_game_quality/FINDINGS.md.