Game quality
What each result was worth beyond the score. Every play is graded by EPA (expected points added), then adjusted for who it came against: a defence's rating is what it allowed to everyone else that season, so a big day against a bad defence counts for less. Season views include playoff games.
Dorian Thompson-Robinson — 2024
Adj EPA / dropback
-0.578
Raw EPA / dropback
-0.565
Dropbacks
126
Turnover EPA
-29.4
WPA
-1.17
| Week | Opp | Dropbacks | Adj EPA/db | Raw EPA/db | Schedule | Total adj EPA | INT / FL | Turnover EPA | Sacks | Sack EPA | WPA | CPOE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | CIN | 25 | -0.797 | -0.773 | -0.024 | -19.9 | 2 / 0 | -9.4 | 1 | -1.0 | -0.39 | -16.4 |
| 11 | NO | 1 | -0.440 | -0.476 | +0.037 | -0.4 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 0 | +0.0 | -0.00 | -81.0 |
| 15 | KC | 9 | -0.830 | -0.830 | -0.000 | -7.5 | 1 / 0 | -4.8 | 0 | +0.0 | -0.03 | -11.1 |
| 16 | CIN | 39 | -0.486 | -0.458 | -0.028 | -18.9 | 2 / 0 | -7.2 | 5 | -6.6 | -0.30 | -3.5 |
| 17 | MIA | 48 | -0.532 | -0.524 | -0.007 | -25.5 | 1 / 1 | -8.0 | 1 | -5.0 | -0.43 | -14.9 |
| 18 | BAL | 4 | -0.137 | -0.217 | +0.080 | -0.5 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 1 | -1.4 | -0.02 | +2.2 |
Opponent adjustment. A unit's rating for a game is its average over its other games that
season, blended with 16 games' worth of prior (league average plus half of last season's gap from it;
24 games for pass defence, which is noisier). Early in a season that leans on last year; by
midseason it is mostly this year. Chosen by how well it predicts a held-out game: it cut that error by about
a quarter against no shrinkage, and adjusted numbers agree between odd and even weeks more than raw ones do
(team EPA margin r 0.52 → 0.55, defence 0.32 → 0.36, QB EPA/dropback 0.47 → 0.49, 2016–2025).
Win expectancy is a logistic fit of wins on EPA margin over 6,036 completed games (it names the winner 86.5% of the time). These describe what happened; one game is not a forecast. Play-by-play credits the quarterback with every sack and dropback, so a bad line shows up in his numbers. Seasons 2016–2026, built 2026-09-14 01:25 UTC, from nflverse. Write-up:
Win expectancy is a logistic fit of wins on EPA margin over 6,036 completed games (it names the winner 86.5% of the time). These describe what happened; one game is not a forecast. Play-by-play credits the quarterback with every sack and dropback, so a bad line shows up in his numbers. Seasons 2016–2026, built 2026-09-14 01:25 UTC, from nflverse. Write-up:
backtests/nfl_game_quality/FINDINGS.md.