Game quality
What each result was worth beyond the score. Every play is graded by EPA (expected points added), then adjusted for who it came against: a defence's rating is what it allowed to everyone else that season, so a big day against a bad defence counts for less. Season views include playoff games.
Jake Haener — 2024
Adj EPA / dropback
-0.340
Raw EPA / dropback
-0.332
Dropbacks
45
Turnover EPA
-3.6
WPA
-0.26
| Week | Opp | Dropbacks | Adj EPA/db | Raw EPA/db | Schedule | Total adj EPA | INT / FL | Turnover EPA | Sacks | Sack EPA | WPA | CPOE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | CAR | 1 | -0.605 | -0.554 | -0.051 | -0.6 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 0 | +0.0 | -0.00 | -70.6 |
| 5 | KC | 7 | -0.361 | -0.374 | +0.014 | -2.5 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 0 | +0.0 | -0.01 | -23.3 |
| 7 | DEN | 4 | +0.935 | +0.932 | +0.003 | +3.7 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 0 | +0.0 | +0.00 | +3.3 |
| 8 | LAC | 19 | -0.234 | -0.248 | +0.015 | -4.4 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 2 | -2.7 | -0.08 | -11.9 |
| 14 | NYG | 1 | -1.392 | -1.339 | -0.053 | -1.4 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 1 | -1.3 | -0.02 | — |
| 15 | WAS | 13 | -0.775 | -0.726 | -0.049 | -10.1 | 1 / 0 | -3.6 | 3 | -5.7 | -0.15 | -26.8 |
Opponent adjustment. A unit's rating for a game is its average over its other games that
season, blended with 16 games' worth of prior (league average plus half of last season's gap from it;
24 games for pass defence, which is noisier). Early in a season that leans on last year; by
midseason it is mostly this year. Chosen by how well it predicts a held-out game: it cut that error by about
a quarter against no shrinkage, and adjusted numbers agree between odd and even weeks more than raw ones do
(team EPA margin r 0.52 → 0.55, defence 0.32 → 0.36, QB EPA/dropback 0.47 → 0.49, 2016–2025).
Win expectancy is a logistic fit of wins on EPA margin over 6,036 completed games (it names the winner 86.5% of the time). These describe what happened; one game is not a forecast. Play-by-play credits the quarterback with every sack and dropback, so a bad line shows up in his numbers. Seasons 2016–2026, built 2026-09-14 01:25 UTC, from nflverse. Write-up:
Win expectancy is a logistic fit of wins on EPA margin over 6,036 completed games (it names the winner 86.5% of the time). These describe what happened; one game is not a forecast. Play-by-play credits the quarterback with every sack and dropback, so a bad line shows up in his numbers. Seasons 2016–2026, built 2026-09-14 01:25 UTC, from nflverse. Write-up:
backtests/nfl_game_quality/FINDINGS.md.