Game quality
What each result was worth beyond the score. Every play is graded by EPA (expected points added), then adjusted for who it came against: a defence's rating is what it allowed to everyone else that season, so a big day against a bad defence counts for less. Season views include playoff games.
Bryce Young — 2023
Adj EPA / dropback
-0.286
Raw EPA / dropback
-0.268
Dropbacks
589
Turnover EPA
-91.7
WPA
-3.57
| Week | Opp | Dropbacks | Adj EPA/db | Raw EPA/db | Schedule | Total adj EPA | INT / FL | Turnover EPA | Sacks | Sack EPA | WPA | CPOE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | ATL | 40 | -0.309 | -0.263 | -0.045 | -12.3 | 2 / 0 | -8.4 | 2 | -3.4 | -0.32 | -5.5 |
| 2 | NO | 38 | -0.247 | -0.297 | +0.050 | -9.4 | 0 / 1 | -4.8 | 4 | -8.3 | -0.59 | +3.4 |
| 4 | MIN | 37 | -0.375 | -0.352 | -0.023 | -13.9 | 0 / 1 | -10.3 | 5 | -19.5 | -0.44 | +5.1 |
| 5 | DET | 42 | -0.061 | -0.000 | -0.061 | -2.6 | 2 / 0 | -10.8 | 1 | -1.5 | -0.06 | +2.2 |
| 6 | MIA | 42 | -0.295 | -0.261 | -0.034 | -12.4 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 4 | -7.1 | -0.07 | +3.3 |
| 8 | HOU | 37 | +0.005 | -0.009 | +0.014 | +0.2 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 6 | -8.1 | +0.14 | +1.6 |
| 9 | IND | 43 | -0.596 | -0.573 | -0.023 | -25.6 | 3 / 0 | -21.6 | 4 | -5.2 | -0.49 | -7.5 |
| 10 | CHI | 41 | -0.259 | -0.201 | -0.057 | -10.6 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 3 | -4.0 | -0.30 | -8.0 |
| 11 | DAL | 36 | -0.502 | -0.520 | +0.019 | -18.1 | 1 / 1 | -11.9 | 7 | -13.3 | -0.17 | -4.0 |
| 12 | TEN | 35 | -0.182 | -0.139 | -0.043 | -6.4 | 0 / 1 | -5.3 | 4 | -10.0 | -0.18 | +2.6 |
| 13 | TB | 35 | -0.176 | -0.145 | -0.032 | -6.2 | 1 / 0 | -1.8 | 4 | -6.8 | -0.34 | -2.8 |
| 14 | NO | 40 | -0.743 | -0.782 | +0.040 | -29.7 | 0 / 1 | -6.6 | 4 | -12.4 | -0.59 | -21.2 |
| 15 | ATL | 27 | -0.185 | -0.144 | -0.041 | -5.0 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 3 | -3.7 | +0.03 | +13.6 |
| 16 | GB | 37 | +0.329 | +0.330 | -0.002 | +12.2 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 2 | -3.5 | +0.50 | +9.5 |
| 17 | JAX | 38 | -0.587 | -0.565 | -0.022 | -22.3 | 1 / 0 | -4.8 | 6 | -11.7 | -0.32 | -4.3 |
| 18 | TB | 21 | -0.309 | -0.276 | -0.033 | -6.5 | 0 / 1 | -5.5 | 3 | -10.5 | -0.38 | -8.0 |
Opponent adjustment. A unit's rating for a game is its average over its other games that
season, blended with 16 games' worth of prior (league average plus half of last season's gap from it;
24 games for pass defence, which is noisier). Early in a season that leans on last year; by
midseason it is mostly this year. Chosen by how well it predicts a held-out game: it cut that error by about
a quarter against no shrinkage, and adjusted numbers agree between odd and even weeks more than raw ones do
(team EPA margin r 0.52 → 0.55, defence 0.32 → 0.36, QB EPA/dropback 0.47 → 0.49, 2016–2025).
Win expectancy is a logistic fit of wins on EPA margin over 6,036 completed games (it names the winner 86.5% of the time). These describe what happened; one game is not a forecast. Play-by-play credits the quarterback with every sack and dropback, so a bad line shows up in his numbers. Seasons 2016–2026, built 2026-09-14 01:25 UTC, from nflverse. Write-up:
Win expectancy is a logistic fit of wins on EPA margin over 6,036 completed games (it names the winner 86.5% of the time). These describe what happened; one game is not a forecast. Play-by-play credits the quarterback with every sack and dropback, so a bad line shows up in his numbers. Seasons 2016–2026, built 2026-09-14 01:25 UTC, from nflverse. Write-up:
backtests/nfl_game_quality/FINDINGS.md.