Game quality
What each result was worth beyond the score. Every play is graded by EPA (expected points added), then adjusted for who it came against: a defence's rating is what it allowed to everyone else that season, so a big day against a bad defence counts for less. Season views include playoff games.
Bryce Young — 2024
Adj EPA / dropback
-0.072
Raw EPA / dropback
-0.062
Dropbacks
414
Turnover EPA
-39.5
WPA
+0.08
| Week | Opp | Dropbacks | Adj EPA/db | Raw EPA/db | Schedule | Total adj EPA | INT / FL | Turnover EPA | Sacks | Sack EPA | WPA | CPOE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | NO | 34 | -0.502 | -0.525 | +0.022 | -17.1 | 2 / 0 | -6.6 | 4 | -6.2 | -0.11 | -15.3 |
| 2 | LAC | 28 | -0.786 | -0.788 | +0.002 | -22.0 | 1 / 0 | -4.0 | 2 | -4.9 | -0.32 | -6.5 |
| 5 | CHI | 8 | -0.053 | -0.045 | -0.008 | -0.4 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 1 | -2.9 | -0.00 | -3.2 |
| 7 | WAS | 2 | -0.998 | -0.930 | -0.068 | -2.0 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 0 | +0.0 | -0.00 | +13.9 |
| 8 | DEN | 39 | -0.060 | -0.072 | +0.012 | -2.4 | 2 / 0 | -9.8 | 2 | -2.9 | -0.21 | +5.6 |
| 9 | NO | 28 | +0.013 | -0.020 | +0.033 | +0.4 | 1 / 0 | -2.7 | 1 | -1.2 | -0.07 | +1.7 |
| 10 | NYG | 26 | -0.147 | -0.092 | -0.055 | -3.8 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 1 | -2.0 | -0.41 | -5.7 |
| 12 | KC | 37 | +0.191 | +0.172 | +0.019 | +7.1 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 2 | -3.4 | -0.01 | +3.4 |
| 13 | TB | 47 | +0.062 | +0.096 | -0.035 | +2.9 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 1 | -1.4 | +0.59 | +3.0 |
| 14 | PHI | 35 | +0.121 | +0.080 | +0.042 | +4.2 | 1 / 0 | -3.2 | 1 | -2.2 | +0.02 | -2.4 |
| 15 | DAL | 34 | -0.337 | -0.303 | -0.035 | -11.5 | 2 / 1 | -13.2 | 6 | -14.9 | -0.16 | +0.7 |
| 16 | ARI | 29 | -0.033 | +0.038 | -0.071 | -1.0 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 3 | -3.9 | -0.22 | +5.6 |
| 17 | TB | 33 | -0.115 | -0.076 | -0.039 | -3.8 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 5 | -10.2 | +0.01 | +9.9 |
| 18 | ATL | 34 | +0.572 | +0.589 | -0.017 | +19.5 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 0 | +0.0 | +0.96 | +6.1 |
Opponent adjustment. A unit's rating for a game is its average over its other games that
season, blended with 16 games' worth of prior (league average plus half of last season's gap from it;
24 games for pass defence, which is noisier). Early in a season that leans on last year; by
midseason it is mostly this year. Chosen by how well it predicts a held-out game: it cut that error by about
a quarter against no shrinkage, and adjusted numbers agree between odd and even weeks more than raw ones do
(team EPA margin r 0.52 → 0.55, defence 0.32 → 0.36, QB EPA/dropback 0.47 → 0.49, 2016–2025).
Win expectancy is a logistic fit of wins on EPA margin over 6,036 completed games (it names the winner 86.5% of the time). These describe what happened; one game is not a forecast. Play-by-play credits the quarterback with every sack and dropback, so a bad line shows up in his numbers. Seasons 2016–2026, built 2026-09-14 01:25 UTC, from nflverse. Write-up:
Win expectancy is a logistic fit of wins on EPA margin over 6,036 completed games (it names the winner 86.5% of the time). These describe what happened; one game is not a forecast. Play-by-play credits the quarterback with every sack and dropback, so a bad line shows up in his numbers. Seasons 2016–2026, built 2026-09-14 01:25 UTC, from nflverse. Write-up:
backtests/nfl_game_quality/FINDINGS.md.