Game quality
What each result was worth beyond the score. Every play is graded by EPA (expected points added), then adjusted for who it came against: a defence's rating is what it allowed to everyone else that season, so a big day against a bad defence counts for less. Season views include playoff games.
Bryce Young — 2025
Adj EPA / dropback
-0.074
Raw EPA / dropback
-0.054
Dropbacks
548
Turnover EPA
-70.6
WPA
-0.13
| Week | Opp | Dropbacks | Adj EPA/db | Raw EPA/db | Schedule | Total adj EPA | INT / FL | Turnover EPA | Sacks | Sack EPA | WPA | CPOE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | JAX | 36 | -0.419 | -0.428 | +0.009 | -15.1 | 2 / 0 | -7.2 | 1 | -3.3 | -0.28 | -12.4 |
| 2 | ARI | 58 | -0.017 | +0.056 | -0.073 | -1.0 | 1 / 1 | -10.9 | 3 | -8.9 | -0.59 | -2.3 |
| 3 | ATL | 25 | -0.100 | -0.099 | -0.001 | -2.5 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 1 | -2.2 | +0.03 | -1.3 |
| 4 | NE | 31 | -0.256 | -0.288 | +0.033 | -7.9 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 1 | -2.4 | -0.00 | -0.4 |
| 5 | MIA | 32 | -0.080 | -0.033 | -0.047 | -2.6 | 1 / 1 | -9.5 | 3 | -9.4 | +0.06 | +8.7 |
| 6 | DAL | 26 | -0.029 | +0.085 | -0.113 | -0.7 | 1 / 0 | -7.4 | 1 | -1.3 | +0.06 | +13.7 |
| 7 | NYJ | 26 | -0.110 | +0.004 | -0.114 | -2.9 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 1 | -1.8 | +0.02 | -3.2 |
| 9 | GB | 21 | -0.152 | -0.157 | +0.006 | -3.2 | 1 / 0 | -4.6 | 1 | +0.2 | -0.03 | -11.5 |
| 10 | NO | 27 | -0.412 | -0.426 | +0.014 | -11.1 | 1 / 0 | -5.0 | 2 | -3.4 | -0.31 | +2.8 |
| 11 | ATL | 52 | +0.281 | +0.274 | +0.007 | +14.6 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 5 | -13.8 | +0.86 | +2.2 |
| 12 | SF | 31 | -0.369 | -0.322 | -0.047 | -11.4 | 2 / 0 | -11.5 | 1 | -1.5 | -0.33 | -2.6 |
| 13 | LA | 22 | +0.670 | +0.648 | +0.022 | +14.7 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 2 | -2.2 | +0.70 | +8.8 |
| 15 | NO | 25 | +0.341 | +0.308 | +0.033 | +8.5 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 1 | -1.2 | +0.16 | +7.1 |
| 16 | TB | 34 | +0.074 | +0.114 | -0.040 | +2.5 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 2 | -2.7 | +0.19 | +6.7 |
| 17 | SEA | 26 | -0.752 | -0.811 | +0.059 | -19.5 | 1 / 0 | -5.4 | 2 | -2.7 | -0.48 | -7.1 |
| 18 | TB | 34 | +0.151 | +0.189 | -0.038 | +5.1 | 1 / 0 | -3.2 | 0 | +0.0 | +0.02 | +11.3 |
| 19 | LA | 42 | -0.186 | -0.192 | +0.006 | -7.8 | 1 / 0 | -5.9 | 2 | -3.0 | -0.22 | -5.9 |
Opponent adjustment. A unit's rating for a game is its average over its other games that
season, blended with 16 games' worth of prior (league average plus half of last season's gap from it;
24 games for pass defence, which is noisier). Early in a season that leans on last year; by
midseason it is mostly this year. Chosen by how well it predicts a held-out game: it cut that error by about
a quarter against no shrinkage, and adjusted numbers agree between odd and even weeks more than raw ones do
(team EPA margin r 0.52 → 0.55, defence 0.32 → 0.36, QB EPA/dropback 0.47 → 0.49, 2016–2025).
Win expectancy is a logistic fit of wins on EPA margin over 6,036 completed games (it names the winner 86.5% of the time). These describe what happened; one game is not a forecast. Play-by-play credits the quarterback with every sack and dropback, so a bad line shows up in his numbers. Seasons 2016–2026, built 2026-09-14 01:25 UTC, from nflverse. Write-up:
Win expectancy is a logistic fit of wins on EPA margin over 6,036 completed games (it names the winner 86.5% of the time). These describe what happened; one game is not a forecast. Play-by-play credits the quarterback with every sack and dropback, so a bad line shows up in his numbers. Seasons 2016–2026, built 2026-09-14 01:25 UTC, from nflverse. Write-up:
backtests/nfl_game_quality/FINDINGS.md.