Game quality
What each result was worth beyond the score. Every play is graded by EPA (expected points added), then adjusted for who it came against: a defence's rating is what it allowed to everyone else that season, so a big day against a bad defence counts for less. Season views include playoff games.
Bryce Young — 2026 Every split →
Adj EPA / dropback
+0.125
Raw EPA / dropback
+0.102
Dropbacks
245
Turnover EPA
-17.9
WPA
+0.67
| Week | Opp | Dropbacks | Adj EPA/db | Raw EPA/db | Schedule | Total adj EPA | INT / FL | Turnover EPA | Sacks | Sack EPA | WPA | CPOE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | CHI | 39 | +0.418 | +0.398 | +0.020 | +16.3 | 1 / 0 | -0.4 | 2 | -4.0 | +0.14 | +6.6 |
| 2 | ATL | 38 | +0.322 | +0.291 | +0.031 | +12.2 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 2 | -2.7 | +0.22 | +11.6 |
| 3 | CLE | 50 | -0.055 | -0.117 | +0.062 | -2.7 | 1 / 0 | -0.3 | 3 | -5.4 | -0.34 | -2.7 |
| 4 | DET | 44 | +0.456 | +0.466 | -0.010 | +20.1 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 3 | -4.4 | +0.69 | +9.0 |
| 6 | PHI | 42 | +0.121 | +0.095 | +0.026 | +5.1 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 2 | -1.7 | +0.09 | -8.2 |
| 7 | TB | 32 | -0.634 | -0.635 | +0.001 | -20.3 | 2 / 1 | -17.2 | 5 | -13.6 | -0.13 | -15.7 |
Opponent adjustment. A unit's rating for a game is its average over its other games that
season, blended with 16 games' worth of prior (league average plus half of last season's gap from it;
24 games for pass defence, which is noisier). Early in a season that leans on last year; by
midseason it is mostly this year. Chosen by how well it predicts a held-out game: it cut that error by about
a quarter against no shrinkage, and adjusted numbers agree between odd and even weeks more than raw ones do
(team EPA margin r 0.52 → 0.55, defence 0.32 → 0.36, QB EPA/dropback 0.47 → 0.49, 2016–2025).
Win expectancy is a logistic fit of wins on EPA margin over 6,036 completed games (it names the winner 86.5% of the time). These describe what happened; one game is not a forecast. Play-by-play credits the quarterback with every sack and dropback, so a bad line shows up in his numbers. Seasons 2016–2026, built 2026-10-28 11:05 UTC, from nflverse. Write-up:
Win expectancy is a logistic fit of wins on EPA margin over 6,036 completed games (it names the winner 86.5% of the time). These describe what happened; one game is not a forecast. Play-by-play credits the quarterback with every sack and dropback, so a bad line shows up in his numbers. Seasons 2016–2026, built 2026-10-28 11:05 UTC, from nflverse. Write-up:
backtests/nfl_game_quality/FINDINGS.md.