Game quality
What each result was worth beyond the score. Every play is graded by EPA (expected points added), then adjusted for who it came against: a defence's rating is what it allowed to everyone else that season, so a big day against a bad defence counts for less. Season views include playoff games.
Will Levis — 2023
Adj EPA / dropback
-0.060
Raw EPA / dropback
-0.046
Dropbacks
282
Turnover EPA
-22.8
WPA
-0.61
| Week | Opp | Dropbacks | Adj EPA/db | Raw EPA/db | Schedule | Total adj EPA | INT / FL | Turnover EPA | Sacks | Sack EPA | WPA | CPOE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | ATL | 31 | +0.157 | +0.192 | -0.034 | +4.9 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 2 | -2.5 | +0.13 | +11.5 |
| 9 | PIT | 42 | -0.097 | -0.084 | -0.013 | -4.1 | 1 / 0 | -2.5 | 4 | -5.3 | -0.36 | +0.3 |
| 10 | TB | 43 | -0.303 | -0.269 | -0.034 | -13.0 | 1 / 0 | -5.2 | 4 | -6.4 | -0.19 | -10.5 |
| 11 | JAX | 19 | +0.154 | +0.156 | -0.002 | +2.9 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 2 | -5.2 | -0.15 | +9.4 |
| 12 | CAR | 28 | -0.019 | -0.016 | -0.003 | -0.5 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 1 | -1.1 | +0.01 | +2.7 |
| 13 | IND | 39 | -0.007 | +0.004 | -0.011 | -0.3 | 0 / 1 | +1.9 | 6 | -3.0 | +0.05 | -12.8 |
| 14 | MIA | 40 | +0.200 | +0.219 | -0.019 | +8.0 | 1 / 0 | -5.1 | 1 | -2.0 | +0.43 | +3.0 |
| 15 | HOU | 33 | -0.162 | -0.174 | +0.012 | -5.4 | 1 / 0 | -3.7 | 7 | -9.7 | -0.42 | +7.9 |
| 17 | HOU | 7 | -1.373 | -1.378 | +0.005 | -9.6 | 0 / 1 | -8.1 | 1 | -8.1 | -0.11 | -19.7 |
Opponent adjustment. A unit's rating for a game is its average over its other games that
season, blended with 16 games' worth of prior (league average plus half of last season's gap from it;
24 games for pass defence, which is noisier). Early in a season that leans on last year; by
midseason it is mostly this year. Chosen by how well it predicts a held-out game: it cut that error by about
a quarter against no shrinkage, and adjusted numbers agree between odd and even weeks more than raw ones do
(team EPA margin r 0.52 → 0.55, defence 0.32 → 0.36, QB EPA/dropback 0.47 → 0.49, 2016–2025).
Win expectancy is a logistic fit of wins on EPA margin over 6,036 completed games (it names the winner 86.5% of the time). These describe what happened; one game is not a forecast. Play-by-play credits the quarterback with every sack and dropback, so a bad line shows up in his numbers. Seasons 2016–2026, built 2026-09-14 01:25 UTC, from nflverse. Write-up:
Win expectancy is a logistic fit of wins on EPA margin over 6,036 completed games (it names the winner 86.5% of the time). These describe what happened; one game is not a forecast. Play-by-play credits the quarterback with every sack and dropback, so a bad line shows up in his numbers. Seasons 2016–2026, built 2026-09-14 01:25 UTC, from nflverse. Write-up:
backtests/nfl_game_quality/FINDINGS.md.