Game quality
What each result was worth beyond the score. Every play is graded by EPA (expected points added), then adjusted for who it came against: a defence's rating is what it allowed to everyone else that season, so a big day against a bad defence counts for less. Season views include playoff games.
C.J. Stroud — 2024
Adj EPA / dropback
-0.021
Raw EPA / dropback
-0.017
Dropbacks
655
Turnover EPA
-61.7
WPA
+0.48
| Week | Opp | Dropbacks | Adj EPA/db | Raw EPA/db | Schedule | Total adj EPA | INT / FL | Turnover EPA | Sacks | Sack EPA | WPA | CPOE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | IND | 36 | +0.177 | +0.209 | -0.032 | +6.4 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 4 | -7.3 | +0.43 | +9.8 |
| 2 | CHI | 39 | +0.042 | +0.041 | +0.001 | +1.7 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 3 | -5.3 | +0.04 | -3.3 |
| 3 | MIN | 34 | -0.220 | -0.259 | +0.039 | -7.5 | 2 / 0 | -8.4 | 4 | -6.3 | -0.16 | -5.7 |
| 4 | JAX | 42 | +0.282 | +0.341 | -0.058 | +11.9 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 2 | -2.1 | +0.85 | +1.6 |
| 5 | BUF | 39 | +0.149 | +0.160 | -0.011 | +5.8 | 1 / 1 | -9.2 | 1 | -4.7 | -0.11 | +5.9 |
| 6 | NE | 33 | +0.048 | +0.080 | -0.032 | +1.6 | 1 / 0 | -5.3 | 2 | -2.9 | +0.19 | +4.2 |
| 7 | GB | 25 | -0.434 | -0.455 | +0.021 | -10.8 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 4 | -8.3 | -0.41 | -14.8 |
| 8 | IND | 39 | +0.108 | +0.141 | -0.033 | +4.2 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 2 | -4.0 | +0.11 | +1.7 |
| 9 | NYJ | 38 | -0.323 | -0.354 | +0.031 | -12.3 | 0 / 1 | -5.1 | 8 | -16.3 | -0.45 | -15.0 |
| 10 | DET | 37 | -0.161 | -0.159 | -0.003 | -6.0 | 2 / 0 | -10.6 | 4 | -6.5 | -0.16 | -8.8 |
| 11 | DAL | 35 | +0.163 | +0.183 | -0.021 | +5.7 | 1 / 0 | -3.9 | 1 | -1.9 | +0.26 | -5.3 |
| 12 | TEN | 37 | -0.200 | -0.172 | -0.028 | -7.4 | 2 / 0 | -8.4 | 4 | -5.5 | -0.20 | -4.7 |
| 13 | JAX | 36 | +0.013 | +0.079 | -0.066 | +0.5 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 2 | -3.6 | +0.13 | -1.0 |
| 15 | MIA | 30 | -0.222 | -0.223 | +0.001 | -6.7 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 4 | -7.6 | -0.06 | +3.9 |
| 16 | KC | 41 | +0.166 | +0.147 | +0.019 | +6.8 | 2 / 0 | -4.9 | 2 | -2.2 | +0.08 | +0.9 |
| 17 | BAL | 36 | -0.445 | -0.524 | +0.080 | -16.0 | 1 / 0 | -3.2 | 5 | -10.2 | -0.27 | -10.3 |
| 18 | TEN | 6 | +0.857 | +0.880 | -0.023 | +5.1 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 0 | +0.0 | +0.16 | +30.0 |
| 19 | LAC | 36 | +0.054 | +0.032 | +0.022 | +1.9 | 1 / 0 | -2.8 | 3 | -5.4 | +0.04 | -1.0 |
| 20 | KC | 36 | +0.045 | +0.027 | +0.018 | +1.6 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 8 | -13.3 | +0.01 | +7.1 |
Opponent adjustment. A unit's rating for a game is its average over its other games that
season, blended with 16 games' worth of prior (league average plus half of last season's gap from it;
24 games for pass defence, which is noisier). Early in a season that leans on last year; by
midseason it is mostly this year. Chosen by how well it predicts a held-out game: it cut that error by about
a quarter against no shrinkage, and adjusted numbers agree between odd and even weeks more than raw ones do
(team EPA margin r 0.52 → 0.55, defence 0.32 → 0.36, QB EPA/dropback 0.47 → 0.49, 2016–2025).
Win expectancy is a logistic fit of wins on EPA margin over 6,036 completed games (it names the winner 86.5% of the time). These describe what happened; one game is not a forecast. Play-by-play credits the quarterback with every sack and dropback, so a bad line shows up in his numbers. Seasons 2016–2026, built 2026-09-14 01:25 UTC, from nflverse. Write-up:
Win expectancy is a logistic fit of wins on EPA margin over 6,036 completed games (it names the winner 86.5% of the time). These describe what happened; one game is not a forecast. Play-by-play credits the quarterback with every sack and dropback, so a bad line shows up in his numbers. Seasons 2016–2026, built 2026-09-14 01:25 UTC, from nflverse. Write-up:
backtests/nfl_game_quality/FINDINGS.md.