Game quality
What each result was worth beyond the score. Every play is graded by EPA (expected points added), then adjusted for who it came against: a defence's rating is what it allowed to everyone else that season, so a big day against a bad defence counts for less. Season views include playoff games.
C.J. Stroud — 2025
Adj EPA / dropback
+0.048
Raw EPA / dropback
+0.047
Dropbacks
531
Turnover EPA
-62.6
WPA
-0.26
| Week | Opp | Dropbacks | Adj EPA/db | Raw EPA/db | Schedule | Total adj EPA | INT / FL | Turnover EPA | Sacks | Sack EPA | WPA | CPOE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | LA | 30 | -0.128 | -0.136 | +0.008 | -3.8 | 1 / 0 | -3.5 | 3 | -6.1 | -0.38 | -1.0 |
| 2 | TB | 28 | -0.204 | -0.160 | -0.044 | -5.7 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 3 | -6.4 | -0.27 | -9.8 |
| 3 | JAX | 39 | -0.086 | -0.101 | +0.015 | -3.3 | 2 / 0 | -7.3 | 2 | -3.7 | -0.31 | +1.5 |
| 4 | TEN | 31 | +0.202 | +0.265 | -0.063 | +6.3 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 2 | -2.2 | +0.07 | +8.1 |
| 5 | BAL | 29 | +0.650 | +0.629 | +0.021 | +18.9 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 2 | -4.1 | +0.20 | +19.4 |
| 7 | SEA | 53 | -0.187 | -0.255 | +0.068 | -9.9 | 1 / 0 | -4.5 | 3 | -5.2 | -0.19 | -14.2 |
| 8 | SF | 39 | +0.464 | +0.492 | -0.028 | +18.1 | 1 / 0 | -0.2 | 0 | +0.0 | +0.37 | +8.5 |
| 9 | DEN | 12 | +0.357 | +0.257 | +0.100 | +4.3 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 2 | -3.1 | +0.10 | -8.1 |
| 13 | IND | 37 | +0.183 | +0.205 | -0.023 | +6.8 | 1 / 0 | -3.5 | 2 | -3.5 | +0.21 | +6.0 |
| 14 | KC | 34 | +0.018 | +0.006 | +0.012 | +0.6 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 3 | -3.0 | -0.03 | -6.1 |
| 15 | ARI | 29 | +0.452 | +0.515 | -0.063 | +13.1 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 1 | -1.2 | +0.27 | +11.9 |
| 16 | LV | 35 | +0.049 | +0.082 | -0.034 | +1.7 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 0 | +0.0 | +0.22 | -1.5 |
| 17 | LAC | 28 | -0.099 | -0.169 | +0.070 | -2.8 | 2 / 0 | -8.6 | 0 | +0.0 | +0.17 | -7.5 |
| 18 | IND | 22 | +0.166 | +0.195 | -0.028 | +3.7 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 0 | +0.0 | +0.14 | -4.6 |
| 19 | PIT | 35 | +0.012 | +0.012 | -0.001 | +0.4 | 1 / 2 | -14.6 | 3 | -11.2 | -0.23 | -0.6 |
| 20 | NE | 50 | -0.448 | -0.470 | +0.022 | -22.4 | 4 / 0 | -20.5 | 3 | -4.6 | -0.60 | -20.2 |
Opponent adjustment. A unit's rating for a game is its average over its other games that
season, blended with 16 games' worth of prior (league average plus half of last season's gap from it;
24 games for pass defence, which is noisier). Early in a season that leans on last year; by
midseason it is mostly this year. Chosen by how well it predicts a held-out game: it cut that error by about
a quarter against no shrinkage, and adjusted numbers agree between odd and even weeks more than raw ones do
(team EPA margin r 0.52 → 0.55, defence 0.32 → 0.36, QB EPA/dropback 0.47 → 0.49, 2016–2025).
Win expectancy is a logistic fit of wins on EPA margin over 6,036 completed games (it names the winner 86.5% of the time). These describe what happened; one game is not a forecast. Play-by-play credits the quarterback with every sack and dropback, so a bad line shows up in his numbers. Seasons 2016–2026, built 2026-09-14 01:25 UTC, from nflverse. Write-up:
Win expectancy is a logistic fit of wins on EPA margin over 6,036 completed games (it names the winner 86.5% of the time). These describe what happened; one game is not a forecast. Play-by-play credits the quarterback with every sack and dropback, so a bad line shows up in his numbers. Seasons 2016–2026, built 2026-09-14 01:25 UTC, from nflverse. Write-up:
backtests/nfl_game_quality/FINDINGS.md.