Game quality
What each result was worth beyond the score. Every play is graded by EPA (expected points added), then adjusted for who it came against: a defence's rating is what it allowed to everyone else that season, so a big day against a bad defence counts for less. Season views include playoff games.
Anthony Richardson — 2024
Adj EPA / dropback
-0.130
Raw EPA / dropback
-0.141
Dropbacks
277
Turnover EPA
-55.0
WPA
-0.90
| Week | Opp | Dropbacks | Adj EPA/db | Raw EPA/db | Schedule | Total adj EPA | INT / FL | Turnover EPA | Sacks | Sack EPA | WPA | CPOE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | HOU | 21 | -0.104 | -0.144 | +0.040 | -2.2 | 1 / 0 | -3.9 | 2 | -4.6 | +0.05 | -14.2 |
| 2 | GB | 34 | -0.210 | -0.236 | +0.026 | -7.1 | 3 / 0 | -8.9 | 1 | -1.6 | -0.25 | -8.1 |
| 3 | CHI | 21 | -0.501 | -0.490 | -0.011 | -10.5 | 2 / 0 | -10.0 | 1 | -2.1 | -0.15 | -9.8 |
| 4 | PIT | 4 | +1.093 | +1.069 | +0.023 | +4.4 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 0 | +0.0 | +0.12 | +12.1 |
| 7 | MIA | 24 | -0.220 | -0.222 | +0.002 | -5.3 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 0 | +0.0 | -0.10 | -18.7 |
| 8 | HOU | 36 | -0.192 | -0.224 | +0.032 | -6.9 | 1 / 1 | -5.6 | 5 | -5.8 | -0.40 | -24.8 |
| 11 | NYJ | 33 | +0.305 | +0.263 | +0.041 | +10.1 | 0 / 1 | -6.3 | 2 | -8.5 | +0.35 | +7.3 |
| 12 | DET | 28 | -0.095 | -0.093 | -0.002 | -2.7 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 0 | +0.0 | +0.07 | -14.4 |
| 13 | NE | 24 | -0.094 | -0.059 | -0.035 | -2.3 | 2 / 0 | -7.3 | 0 | +0.0 | -0.08 | -2.8 |
| 15 | DEN | 40 | -0.388 | -0.394 | +0.006 | -15.5 | 2 / 0 | -7.4 | 2 | -2.2 | -0.48 | -16.1 |
| 16 | TEN | 12 | +0.180 | +0.202 | -0.023 | +2.2 | 1 / 0 | -5.5 | 1 | -2.0 | -0.02 | -6.4 |
Opponent adjustment. A unit's rating for a game is its average over its other games that
season, blended with 16 games' worth of prior (league average plus half of last season's gap from it;
24 games for pass defence, which is noisier). Early in a season that leans on last year; by
midseason it is mostly this year. Chosen by how well it predicts a held-out game: it cut that error by about
a quarter against no shrinkage, and adjusted numbers agree between odd and even weeks more than raw ones do
(team EPA margin r 0.52 → 0.55, defence 0.32 → 0.36, QB EPA/dropback 0.47 → 0.49, 2016–2025).
Win expectancy is a logistic fit of wins on EPA margin over 6,036 completed games (it names the winner 86.5% of the time). These describe what happened; one game is not a forecast. Play-by-play credits the quarterback with every sack and dropback, so a bad line shows up in his numbers. Seasons 2016–2026, built 2026-09-14 01:25 UTC, from nflverse. Write-up:
Win expectancy is a logistic fit of wins on EPA margin over 6,036 completed games (it names the winner 86.5% of the time). These describe what happened; one game is not a forecast. Play-by-play credits the quarterback with every sack and dropback, so a bad line shows up in his numbers. Seasons 2016–2026, built 2026-09-14 01:25 UTC, from nflverse. Write-up:
backtests/nfl_game_quality/FINDINGS.md.