Game quality
What each result was worth beyond the score. Every play is graded by EPA (expected points added), then adjusted for who it came against: a defence's rating is what it allowed to everyone else that season, so a big day against a bad defence counts for less. Season views include playoff games.
Spencer Rattler — 2024
Adj EPA / dropback
-0.316
Raw EPA / dropback
-0.303
Dropbacks
250
Turnover EPA
-43.1
WPA
-1.21
| Week | Opp | Dropbacks | Adj EPA/db | Raw EPA/db | Schedule | Total adj EPA | INT / FL | Turnover EPA | Sacks | Sack EPA | WPA | CPOE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | TB | 45 | -0.352 | -0.308 | -0.044 | -15.8 | 2 / 0 | -8.4 | 5 | -8.1 | -0.42 | -12.4 |
| 7 | DEN | 41 | -0.682 | -0.685 | +0.003 | -28.0 | 0 / 2 | -15.6 | 6 | -20.6 | -0.27 | -0.1 |
| 8 | LAC | 27 | -0.206 | -0.220 | +0.015 | -5.6 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 3 | -4.1 | -0.16 | -18.3 |
| 15 | WAS | 21 | +0.251 | +0.300 | -0.049 | +5.3 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 0 | +0.0 | -0.15 | -15.0 |
| 16 | GB | 33 | -0.508 | -0.528 | +0.020 | -16.8 | 1 / 1 | -9.8 | 3 | -7.6 | -0.06 | -14.1 |
| 17 | LV | 39 | -0.398 | -0.401 | +0.003 | -15.5 | 2 / 0 | -9.2 | 3 | -5.3 | -0.19 | -14.2 |
| 18 | TB | 44 | -0.062 | -0.024 | -0.037 | -2.7 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 2 | -2.8 | +0.04 | +1.9 |
Opponent adjustment. A unit's rating for a game is its average over its other games that
season, blended with 16 games' worth of prior (league average plus half of last season's gap from it;
24 games for pass defence, which is noisier). Early in a season that leans on last year; by
midseason it is mostly this year. Chosen by how well it predicts a held-out game: it cut that error by about
a quarter against no shrinkage, and adjusted numbers agree between odd and even weeks more than raw ones do
(team EPA margin r 0.52 → 0.55, defence 0.32 → 0.36, QB EPA/dropback 0.47 → 0.49, 2016–2025).
Win expectancy is a logistic fit of wins on EPA margin over 6,036 completed games (it names the winner 86.5% of the time). These describe what happened; one game is not a forecast. Play-by-play credits the quarterback with every sack and dropback, so a bad line shows up in his numbers. Seasons 2016–2026, built 2026-09-14 01:25 UTC, from nflverse. Write-up:
Win expectancy is a logistic fit of wins on EPA margin over 6,036 completed games (it names the winner 86.5% of the time). These describe what happened; one game is not a forecast. Play-by-play credits the quarterback with every sack and dropback, so a bad line shows up in his numbers. Seasons 2016–2026, built 2026-09-14 01:25 UTC, from nflverse. Write-up:
backtests/nfl_game_quality/FINDINGS.md.