Game quality
What each result was worth beyond the score. Every play is graded by EPA (expected points added), then adjusted for who it came against: a defence's rating is what it allowed to everyone else that season, so a big day against a bad defence counts for less. Season views include playoff games.
Spencer Rattler — 2025
Adj EPA / dropback
-0.089
Raw EPA / dropback
-0.078
Dropbacks
272
Turnover EPA
-26.0
WPA
-1.42
| Week | Opp | Dropbacks | Adj EPA/db | Raw EPA/db | Schedule | Total adj EPA | INT / FL | Turnover EPA | Sacks | Sack EPA | WPA | CPOE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | ARI | 45 | -0.155 | -0.080 | -0.075 | -7.0 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 1 | -2.2 | -0.10 | -5.0 |
| 2 | SF | 37 | -0.116 | -0.076 | -0.040 | -4.3 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 3 | -6.9 | -0.32 | +3.8 |
| 3 | SEA | 41 | +0.108 | +0.035 | +0.073 | +4.4 | 1 / 0 | -1.6 | 2 | -0.7 | -0.07 | +7.2 |
| 4 | BUF | 30 | -0.257 | -0.280 | +0.023 | -7.7 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 3 | -3.6 | -0.17 | +7.1 |
| 5 | NYG | 31 | +0.199 | +0.241 | -0.043 | +6.2 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 0 | +0.0 | +0.11 | -3.2 |
| 6 | NE | 28 | +0.175 | +0.139 | +0.035 | +4.9 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 2 | -2.2 | -0.06 | +6.6 |
| 7 | CHI | 36 | -0.349 | -0.340 | -0.009 | -12.6 | 3 / 1 | -16.9 | 4 | -9.5 | -0.41 | +0.4 |
| 8 | TB | 23 | -0.357 | -0.304 | -0.053 | -8.2 | 1 / 0 | -7.4 | 3 | -4.3 | -0.39 | +5.6 |
| 15 | CAR | 1 | +0.034 | +0.113 | -0.079 | +0.0 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 0 | +0.0 | -0.01 | — |
Opponent adjustment. A unit's rating for a game is its average over its other games that
season, blended with 16 games' worth of prior (league average plus half of last season's gap from it;
24 games for pass defence, which is noisier). Early in a season that leans on last year; by
midseason it is mostly this year. Chosen by how well it predicts a held-out game: it cut that error by about
a quarter against no shrinkage, and adjusted numbers agree between odd and even weeks more than raw ones do
(team EPA margin r 0.52 → 0.55, defence 0.32 → 0.36, QB EPA/dropback 0.47 → 0.49, 2016–2025).
Win expectancy is a logistic fit of wins on EPA margin over 6,036 completed games (it names the winner 86.5% of the time). These describe what happened; one game is not a forecast. Play-by-play credits the quarterback with every sack and dropback, so a bad line shows up in his numbers. Seasons 2016–2026, built 2026-09-14 01:25 UTC, from nflverse. Write-up:
Win expectancy is a logistic fit of wins on EPA margin over 6,036 completed games (it names the winner 86.5% of the time). These describe what happened; one game is not a forecast. Play-by-play credits the quarterback with every sack and dropback, so a bad line shows up in his numbers. Seasons 2016–2026, built 2026-09-14 01:25 UTC, from nflverse. Write-up:
backtests/nfl_game_quality/FINDINGS.md.