Game quality
What each result was worth beyond the score. Every play is graded by EPA (expected points added), then adjusted for who it came against: a defence's rating is what it allowed to everyone else that season, so a big day against a bad defence counts for less. Season views include playoff games.
Bo Nix — 2024
Adj EPA / dropback
+0.051
Raw EPA / dropback
+0.044
Dropbacks
615
Turnover EPA
-42.8
WPA
+0.39
| Week | Opp | Dropbacks | Adj EPA/db | Raw EPA/db | Schedule | Total adj EPA | INT / FL | Turnover EPA | Sacks | Sack EPA | WPA | CPOE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | SEA | 44 | -0.442 | -0.415 | -0.027 | -19.5 | 2 / 0 | -6.9 | 2 | -1.2 | -0.57 | -5.1 |
| 2 | PIT | 37 | -0.224 | -0.233 | +0.009 | -8.3 | 2 / 0 | -6.1 | 2 | -4.0 | -0.33 | -4.3 |
| 3 | TB | 36 | +0.025 | +0.059 | -0.034 | +0.9 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 0 | +0.0 | +0.20 | +4.9 |
| 4 | NYJ | 25 | -0.497 | -0.519 | +0.022 | -12.4 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 0 | +0.0 | -0.49 | -14.8 |
| 5 | LV | 29 | +0.099 | +0.086 | +0.013 | +2.9 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 3 | -4.5 | -0.11 | +2.4 |
| 6 | LAC | 36 | -0.074 | -0.096 | +0.022 | -2.7 | 1 / 0 | -4.5 | 2 | -3.1 | -0.21 | -6.0 |
| 7 | NO | 26 | +0.077 | +0.045 | +0.032 | +2.0 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 0 | +0.0 | +0.06 | -8.0 |
| 8 | CAR | 39 | +0.301 | +0.350 | -0.048 | +11.8 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 2 | -4.9 | +0.23 | +13.5 |
| 9 | BAL | 37 | -0.220 | -0.309 | +0.090 | -8.1 | 1 / 0 | -4.5 | 4 | -7.9 | -0.12 | -4.3 |
| 10 | KC | 32 | +0.261 | +0.241 | +0.020 | +8.3 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 2 | -4.1 | +0.43 | +12.6 |
| 11 | ATL | 34 | +0.652 | +0.668 | -0.017 | +22.2 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 1 | -2.2 | +0.38 | +13.4 |
| 12 | LV | 43 | +0.210 | +0.194 | +0.016 | +9.0 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 1 | -2.0 | +0.30 | -7.3 |
| 13 | CLE | 35 | +0.147 | +0.094 | +0.053 | +5.1 | 2 / 0 | -6.3 | 0 | +0.0 | +0.19 | -4.5 |
| 15 | IND | 34 | -0.481 | -0.436 | -0.045 | -16.4 | 3 / 0 | -12.2 | 1 | -2.1 | -0.33 | -9.1 |
| 16 | LAC | 42 | +0.196 | +0.170 | +0.026 | +8.2 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 2 | -3.0 | +0.17 | -1.6 |
| 17 | CIN | 33 | +0.275 | +0.288 | -0.013 | +9.1 | 1 / 0 | -2.3 | 2 | -1.7 | +0.35 | +9.4 |
| 18 | KC | 29 | +0.930 | +0.895 | +0.034 | +27.0 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 0 | +0.0 | +0.20 | +19.0 |
| 19 | BUF | 24 | -0.326 | -0.310 | -0.016 | -7.8 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 2 | -2.7 | +0.05 | -4.5 |
Opponent adjustment. A unit's rating for a game is its average over its other games that
season, blended with 16 games' worth of prior (league average plus half of last season's gap from it;
24 games for pass defence, which is noisier). Early in a season that leans on last year; by
midseason it is mostly this year. Chosen by how well it predicts a held-out game: it cut that error by about
a quarter against no shrinkage, and adjusted numbers agree between odd and even weeks more than raw ones do
(team EPA margin r 0.52 → 0.55, defence 0.32 → 0.36, QB EPA/dropback 0.47 → 0.49, 2016–2025).
Win expectancy is a logistic fit of wins on EPA margin over 6,036 completed games (it names the winner 86.5% of the time). These describe what happened; one game is not a forecast. Play-by-play credits the quarterback with every sack and dropback, so a bad line shows up in his numbers. Seasons 2016–2026, built 2026-09-14 01:25 UTC, from nflverse. Write-up:
Win expectancy is a logistic fit of wins on EPA margin over 6,036 completed games (it names the winner 86.5% of the time). These describe what happened; one game is not a forecast. Play-by-play credits the quarterback with every sack and dropback, so a bad line shows up in his numbers. Seasons 2016–2026, built 2026-09-14 01:25 UTC, from nflverse. Write-up:
backtests/nfl_game_quality/FINDINGS.md.