Game quality
What each result was worth beyond the score. Every play is graded by EPA (expected points added), then adjusted for who it came against: a defence's rating is what it allowed to everyone else that season, so a big day against a bad defence counts for less. Season views include playoff games.
Drake Maye — 2024
Adj EPA / dropback
-0.083
Raw EPA / dropback
-0.070
Dropbacks
374
Turnover EPA
-65.3
WPA
-0.42
| Week | Opp | Dropbacks | Adj EPA/db | Raw EPA/db | Schedule | Total adj EPA | INT / FL | Turnover EPA | Sacks | Sack EPA | WPA | CPOE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | NYJ | 10 | -0.517 | -0.541 | +0.024 | -5.2 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 2 | -5.8 | -0.00 | -23.0 |
| 6 | HOU | 37 | -0.231 | -0.264 | +0.034 | -8.5 | 2 / 1 | -15.8 | 4 | -9.5 | -0.18 | -3.3 |
| 7 | JAX | 40 | +0.109 | +0.172 | -0.062 | +4.4 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 2 | -2.3 | +0.12 | +5.2 |
| 8 | NYJ | 7 | -0.362 | -0.401 | +0.039 | -2.5 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 1 | -2.0 | -0.05 | -11.6 |
| 9 | TEN | 44 | -0.277 | -0.251 | -0.026 | -12.2 | 2 / 1 | -11.3 | 4 | -9.5 | -0.57 | +5.8 |
| 10 | CHI | 26 | -0.052 | -0.051 | -0.000 | -1.3 | 1 / 0 | -4.8 | 1 | -1.6 | +0.08 | +5.2 |
| 11 | LA | 42 | +0.262 | +0.264 | -0.002 | +11.0 | 1 / 1 | -6.7 | 3 | -7.1 | +0.07 | +8.9 |
| 12 | MIA | 42 | -0.270 | -0.270 | -0.000 | -11.4 | 1 / 1 | -10.9 | 4 | -11.1 | -0.02 | -5.9 |
| 13 | IND | 35 | +0.194 | +0.223 | -0.029 | +6.8 | 1 / 0 | -5.8 | 4 | -5.0 | +0.16 | +10.4 |
| 15 | ARI | 25 | +0.066 | +0.137 | -0.072 | +1.6 | 1 / 0 | -4.3 | 2 | -3.2 | -0.06 | +12.0 |
| 16 | BUF | 38 | +0.099 | +0.110 | -0.011 | +3.8 | 1 / 0 | -5.7 | 2 | -3.0 | +0.10 | +7.8 |
| 17 | LAC | 26 | -0.569 | -0.578 | +0.009 | -14.8 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 4 | -11.4 | +0.00 | -6.5 |
| 18 | BUF | 2 | -1.364 | -1.357 | -0.007 | -2.7 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 1 | -1.8 | -0.07 | -78.5 |
Opponent adjustment. A unit's rating for a game is its average over its other games that
season, blended with 16 games' worth of prior (league average plus half of last season's gap from it;
24 games for pass defence, which is noisier). Early in a season that leans on last year; by
midseason it is mostly this year. Chosen by how well it predicts a held-out game: it cut that error by about
a quarter against no shrinkage, and adjusted numbers agree between odd and even weeks more than raw ones do
(team EPA margin r 0.52 → 0.55, defence 0.32 → 0.36, QB EPA/dropback 0.47 → 0.49, 2016–2025).
Win expectancy is a logistic fit of wins on EPA margin over 6,036 completed games (it names the winner 86.5% of the time). These describe what happened; one game is not a forecast. Play-by-play credits the quarterback with every sack and dropback, so a bad line shows up in his numbers. Seasons 2016–2026, built 2026-09-14 01:25 UTC, from nflverse. Write-up:
Win expectancy is a logistic fit of wins on EPA margin over 6,036 completed games (it names the winner 86.5% of the time). These describe what happened; one game is not a forecast. Play-by-play credits the quarterback with every sack and dropback, so a bad line shows up in his numbers. Seasons 2016–2026, built 2026-09-14 01:25 UTC, from nflverse. Write-up:
backtests/nfl_game_quality/FINDINGS.md.