Game quality
What each result was worth beyond the score. Every play is graded by EPA (expected points added), then adjusted for who it came against: a defence's rating is what it allowed to everyone else that season, so a big day against a bad defence counts for less. Season views include playoff games.
Jayden Daniels — 2024
Adj EPA / dropback
+0.148
Raw EPA / dropback
+0.143
Dropbacks
648
Turnover EPA
-38.4
WPA
+2.70
| Week | Opp | Dropbacks | Adj EPA/db | Raw EPA/db | Schedule | Total adj EPA | INT / FL | Turnover EPA | Sacks | Sack EPA | WPA | CPOE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | TB | 27 | -0.098 | -0.064 | -0.034 | -2.6 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 2 | -3.9 | -0.15 | -3.2 |
| 2 | NYG | 34 | +0.089 | +0.138 | -0.050 | +3.0 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 5 | -5.9 | +0.22 | +6.4 |
| 3 | CIN | 25 | +0.865 | +0.864 | +0.000 | +21.6 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 2 | -2.7 | +0.55 | +28.4 |
| 4 | ARI | 31 | +0.391 | +0.457 | -0.066 | +12.1 | 1 / 0 | -3.5 | 0 | +0.0 | +0.19 | +14.3 |
| 5 | CLE | 28 | +0.139 | +0.085 | +0.054 | +3.9 | 1 / 0 | -3.8 | 3 | -4.8 | -0.08 | -6.5 |
| 6 | BAL | 38 | +0.347 | +0.250 | +0.097 | +13.2 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 3 | -3.3 | +0.12 | +9.2 |
| 7 | CAR | 2 | -0.666 | -0.620 | -0.046 | -1.3 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 0 | +0.0 | -0.03 | +23.1 |
| 8 | CHI | 40 | +0.168 | +0.161 | +0.007 | +6.7 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 2 | -4.0 | +0.85 | -0.9 |
| 9 | NYG | 22 | +0.405 | +0.446 | -0.041 | +8.9 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 0 | +0.0 | +0.30 | +11.9 |
| 10 | PIT | 37 | -0.241 | -0.250 | +0.009 | -8.9 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 3 | -5.5 | -0.52 | -12.7 |
| 11 | PHI | 36 | +0.078 | +0.039 | +0.040 | +2.8 | 1 / 0 | -4.1 | 3 | -4.5 | +0.06 | -4.2 |
| 12 | DAL | 41 | -0.143 | -0.116 | -0.027 | -5.9 | 2 / 0 | -6.4 | 4 | -3.4 | -0.18 | +6.8 |
| 13 | TEN | 32 | +0.299 | +0.316 | -0.018 | +9.6 | 1 / 0 | -4.5 | 2 | -3.3 | +0.11 | +10.9 |
| 15 | NO | 39 | +0.064 | +0.028 | +0.036 | +2.5 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 8 | -11.5 | +0.10 | +11.4 |
| 16 | PHI | 39 | +0.162 | +0.117 | +0.045 | +6.3 | 2 / 0 | -7.6 | 1 | +0.7 | +0.32 | -2.3 |
| 17 | ATL | 41 | +0.094 | +0.121 | -0.027 | +3.9 | 1 / 0 | -5.1 | 5 | -6.3 | +0.16 | -0.3 |
| 18 | DAL | 16 | -0.739 | -0.713 | -0.025 | -11.8 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 4 | -5.9 | -0.31 | -18.4 |
| 19 | TB | 36 | +0.277 | +0.308 | -0.030 | +10.0 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 1 | -1.3 | +0.55 | +10.3 |
| 20 | DET | 31 | +0.633 | +0.618 | +0.015 | +19.6 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 0 | +0.0 | +0.56 | +6.2 |
| 21 | PHI | 53 | +0.042 | +0.000 | +0.042 | +2.2 | 1 / 0 | -3.4 | 3 | -6.2 | -0.12 | -6.1 |
Opponent adjustment. A unit's rating for a game is its average over its other games that
season, blended with 16 games' worth of prior (league average plus half of last season's gap from it;
24 games for pass defence, which is noisier). Early in a season that leans on last year; by
midseason it is mostly this year. Chosen by how well it predicts a held-out game: it cut that error by about
a quarter against no shrinkage, and adjusted numbers agree between odd and even weeks more than raw ones do
(team EPA margin r 0.52 → 0.55, defence 0.32 → 0.36, QB EPA/dropback 0.47 → 0.49, 2016–2025).
Win expectancy is a logistic fit of wins on EPA margin over 6,036 completed games (it names the winner 86.5% of the time). These describe what happened; one game is not a forecast. Play-by-play credits the quarterback with every sack and dropback, so a bad line shows up in his numbers. Seasons 2016–2026, built 2026-09-14 01:25 UTC, from nflverse. Write-up:
Win expectancy is a logistic fit of wins on EPA margin over 6,036 completed games (it names the winner 86.5% of the time). These describe what happened; one game is not a forecast. Play-by-play credits the quarterback with every sack and dropback, so a bad line shows up in his numbers. Seasons 2016–2026, built 2026-09-14 01:25 UTC, from nflverse. Write-up:
backtests/nfl_game_quality/FINDINGS.md.