Game quality
What each result was worth beyond the score. Every play is graded by EPA (expected points added), then adjusted for who it came against: a defence's rating is what it allowed to everyone else that season, so a big day against a bad defence counts for less. Season views include playoff games.
Jayden Daniels — 2025
Adj EPA / dropback
-0.017
Raw EPA / dropback
-0.024
Dropbacks
205
Turnover EPA
-21.6
WPA
+0.20
| Week | Opp | Dropbacks | Adj EPA/db | Raw EPA/db | Schedule | Total adj EPA | INT / FL | Turnover EPA | Sacks | Sack EPA | WPA | CPOE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | NYG | 33 | -0.005 | +0.041 | -0.046 | -0.2 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 3 | -3.3 | -0.02 | -1.3 |
| 2 | GB | 46 | -0.172 | -0.172 | +0.001 | -7.9 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 4 | -6.1 | -0.22 | -7.2 |
| 5 | LAC | 26 | +0.617 | +0.530 | +0.087 | +16.0 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 1 | -0.5 | +0.30 | -0.8 |
| 6 | CHI | 29 | +0.227 | +0.222 | +0.005 | +6.6 | 1 / 0 | -6.0 | 3 | -2.3 | +0.24 | +11.1 |
| 7 | DAL | 24 | -0.372 | -0.245 | -0.127 | -8.9 | 0 / 1 | -6.2 | 2 | -7.3 | +0.02 | -9.6 |
| 9 | SEA | 26 | +0.021 | -0.051 | +0.072 | +0.5 | 1 / 0 | -2.5 | 4 | -6.8 | -0.01 | +4.0 |
| 14 | MIN | 21 | -0.454 | -0.536 | +0.082 | -9.5 | 1 / 0 | -6.9 | 1 | -0.9 | -0.10 | -17.7 |
Opponent adjustment. A unit's rating for a game is its average over its other games that
season, blended with 16 games' worth of prior (league average plus half of last season's gap from it;
24 games for pass defence, which is noisier). Early in a season that leans on last year; by
midseason it is mostly this year. Chosen by how well it predicts a held-out game: it cut that error by about
a quarter against no shrinkage, and adjusted numbers agree between odd and even weeks more than raw ones do
(team EPA margin r 0.52 → 0.55, defence 0.32 → 0.36, QB EPA/dropback 0.47 → 0.49, 2016–2025).
Win expectancy is a logistic fit of wins on EPA margin over 6,036 completed games (it names the winner 86.5% of the time). These describe what happened; one game is not a forecast. Play-by-play credits the quarterback with every sack and dropback, so a bad line shows up in his numbers. Seasons 2016–2026, built 2026-09-14 01:25 UTC, from nflverse. Write-up:
Win expectancy is a logistic fit of wins on EPA margin over 6,036 completed games (it names the winner 86.5% of the time). These describe what happened; one game is not a forecast. Play-by-play credits the quarterback with every sack and dropback, so a bad line shows up in his numbers. Seasons 2016–2026, built 2026-09-14 01:25 UTC, from nflverse. Write-up:
backtests/nfl_game_quality/FINDINGS.md.