Game quality
What each result was worth beyond the score. Every play is graded by EPA (expected points added), then adjusted for who it came against: a defence's rating is what it allowed to everyone else that season, so a big day against a bad defence counts for less. Season views include playoff games.
Michael Penix Jr. — 2025
Adj EPA / dropback
-0.004
Raw EPA / dropback
+0.018
Dropbacks
290
Turnover EPA
-28.9
WPA
+0.33
| Week | Opp | Dropbacks | Adj EPA/db | Raw EPA/db | Schedule | Total adj EPA | INT / FL | Turnover EPA | Sacks | Sack EPA | WPA | CPOE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | TB | 43 | +0.190 | +0.224 | -0.033 | +8.2 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 1 | -1.9 | +0.39 | -5.9 |
| 2 | MIN | 24 | -0.039 | -0.135 | +0.096 | -0.9 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 3 | -5.6 | -0.30 | -7.5 |
| 3 | CAR | 36 | -0.619 | -0.522 | -0.097 | -22.3 | 2 / 0 | -12.1 | 0 | +0.0 | -0.25 | -12.5 |
| 4 | WAS | 27 | +0.610 | +0.677 | -0.068 | +16.5 | 1 / 0 | -6.6 | 1 | -1.3 | +0.39 | +11.4 |
| 6 | BUF | 34 | +0.015 | -0.012 | +0.028 | +0.5 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 2 | -3.5 | +0.02 | -6.4 |
| 7 | SF | 40 | -0.213 | -0.168 | -0.044 | -8.5 | 0 / 1 | -4.7 | 2 | -6.2 | -0.10 | -5.8 |
| 9 | NE | 38 | +0.133 | +0.098 | +0.035 | +5.1 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 1 | -1.3 | +0.14 | +4.7 |
| 10 | IND | 32 | -0.286 | -0.252 | -0.034 | -9.1 | 0 / 1 | -5.5 | 3 | -8.5 | -0.26 | -16.3 |
| 11 | CAR | 16 | +0.593 | +0.671 | -0.079 | +9.5 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 0 | +0.0 | +0.30 | +15.6 |
Opponent adjustment. A unit's rating for a game is its average over its other games that
season, blended with 16 games' worth of prior (league average plus half of last season's gap from it;
24 games for pass defence, which is noisier). Early in a season that leans on last year; by
midseason it is mostly this year. Chosen by how well it predicts a held-out game: it cut that error by about
a quarter against no shrinkage, and adjusted numbers agree between odd and even weeks more than raw ones do
(team EPA margin r 0.52 → 0.55, defence 0.32 → 0.36, QB EPA/dropback 0.47 → 0.49, 2016–2025).
Win expectancy is a logistic fit of wins on EPA margin over 6,036 completed games (it names the winner 86.5% of the time). These describe what happened; one game is not a forecast. Play-by-play credits the quarterback with every sack and dropback, so a bad line shows up in his numbers. Seasons 2016–2026, built 2026-09-14 01:25 UTC, from nflverse. Write-up:
Win expectancy is a logistic fit of wins on EPA margin over 6,036 completed games (it names the winner 86.5% of the time). These describe what happened; one game is not a forecast. Play-by-play credits the quarterback with every sack and dropback, so a bad line shows up in his numbers. Seasons 2016–2026, built 2026-09-14 01:25 UTC, from nflverse. Write-up:
backtests/nfl_game_quality/FINDINGS.md.