Game quality
What each result was worth beyond the score. Every play is graded by EPA (expected points added), then adjusted for who it came against: a defence's rating is what it allowed to everyone else that season, so a big day against a bad defence counts for less. Season views include playoff games.
Michael Penix Jr. — 2026 Every split →
Adj EPA / dropback
+0.168
Raw EPA / dropback
+0.175
Dropbacks
155
Turnover EPA
-7.9
WPA
+0.30
| Week | Opp | Dropbacks | Adj EPA/db | Raw EPA/db | Schedule | Total adj EPA | INT / FL | Turnover EPA | Sacks | Sack EPA | WPA | CPOE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | GB | 26 | +0.371 | +0.366 | +0.006 | +9.7 | 1 / 0 | -4.9 | 0 | +0.0 | -0.02 | +8.8 |
| 4 | NO | 21 | +0.512 | +0.507 | +0.005 | +10.8 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 1 | -2.3 | +0.15 | +1.8 |
| 5 | BAL | 35 | +0.196 | +0.219 | -0.022 | +6.9 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 3 | -3.2 | +0.03 | -5.0 |
| 6 | CHI | 40 | -0.249 | -0.246 | -0.003 | -10.0 | 0 / 1 | -3.1 | 5 | -10.3 | -0.19 | -7.3 |
| 7 | SF | 33 | +0.264 | +0.279 | -0.015 | +8.7 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 0 | +0.0 | +0.34 | +5.5 |
Opponent adjustment. A unit's rating for a game is its average over its other games that
season, blended with 16 games' worth of prior (league average plus half of last season's gap from it;
24 games for pass defence, which is noisier). Early in a season that leans on last year; by
midseason it is mostly this year. Chosen by how well it predicts a held-out game: it cut that error by about
a quarter against no shrinkage, and adjusted numbers agree between odd and even weeks more than raw ones do
(team EPA margin r 0.52 → 0.55, defence 0.32 → 0.36, QB EPA/dropback 0.47 → 0.49, 2016–2025).
Win expectancy is a logistic fit of wins on EPA margin over 6,036 completed games (it names the winner 86.5% of the time). These describe what happened; one game is not a forecast. Play-by-play credits the quarterback with every sack and dropback, so a bad line shows up in his numbers. Seasons 2016–2026, built 2026-10-28 11:05 UTC, from nflverse. Write-up:
Win expectancy is a logistic fit of wins on EPA margin over 6,036 completed games (it names the winner 86.5% of the time). These describe what happened; one game is not a forecast. Play-by-play credits the quarterback with every sack and dropback, so a bad line shows up in his numbers. Seasons 2016–2026, built 2026-10-28 11:05 UTC, from nflverse. Write-up:
backtests/nfl_game_quality/FINDINGS.md.