Game quality
What each result was worth beyond the score. Every play is graded by EPA (expected points added), then adjusted for who it came against: a defence's rating is what it allowed to everyone else that season, so a big day against a bad defence counts for less. Season views include playoff games.
Caleb Williams — 2024
Adj EPA / dropback
-0.086
Raw EPA / dropback
-0.075
Dropbacks
636
Turnover EPA
-37.0
WPA
-1.84
| Week | Opp | Dropbacks | Adj EPA/db | Raw EPA/db | Schedule | Total adj EPA | INT / FL | Turnover EPA | Sacks | Sack EPA | WPA | CPOE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | TEN | 32 | -0.412 | -0.380 | -0.033 | -13.2 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 2 | -4.1 | -0.22 | -19.8 |
| 2 | HOU | 44 | -0.462 | -0.490 | +0.028 | -20.3 | 2 / 0 | -5.2 | 7 | -11.7 | -0.43 | -1.3 |
| 3 | IND | 56 | -0.170 | -0.131 | -0.040 | -9.5 | 2 / 1 | -14.9 | 4 | -10.6 | -0.34 | +2.7 |
| 4 | LA | 26 | +0.073 | +0.080 | -0.007 | +1.9 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 3 | -4.4 | +0.02 | +10.3 |
| 5 | CAR | 31 | +0.411 | +0.456 | -0.045 | +12.7 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 1 | -2.0 | +0.22 | +2.8 |
| 6 | JAX | 32 | +0.392 | +0.446 | -0.054 | +12.5 | 1 / 0 | -4.0 | 3 | -2.9 | +0.24 | +15.9 |
| 8 | WAS | 28 | -0.349 | -0.296 | -0.053 | -9.8 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 3 | -5.2 | +0.21 | -9.4 |
| 9 | ARI | 47 | -0.315 | -0.232 | -0.082 | -14.8 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 6 | -11.0 | -0.06 | -4.8 |
| 10 | NE | 39 | -0.619 | -0.573 | -0.046 | -24.1 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 9 | -14.2 | -0.43 | -8.3 |
| 11 | GB | 35 | +0.126 | +0.091 | +0.035 | +4.4 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 3 | -3.2 | +0.32 | +6.7 |
| 12 | MIN | 51 | +0.124 | +0.077 | +0.047 | +6.3 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 3 | -4.1 | -0.06 | +1.6 |
| 13 | DET | 44 | -0.027 | -0.029 | +0.002 | -1.2 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 5 | -7.1 | -0.49 | -8.3 |
| 14 | SF | 31 | -0.224 | -0.243 | +0.019 | -6.9 | 0 / 1 | -5.6 | 7 | -14.6 | -0.11 | +3.6 |
| 15 | MIN | 34 | -0.089 | -0.128 | +0.039 | -3.0 | 0 / 1 | -6.8 | 2 | -9.2 | -0.15 | -5.7 |
| 16 | DET | 42 | +0.403 | +0.392 | +0.011 | +16.9 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 2 | -3.4 | -0.00 | +5.8 |
| 17 | SEA | 35 | -0.318 | -0.292 | -0.026 | -11.1 | 1 / 0 | -0.6 | 7 | -8.5 | -0.68 | -5.0 |
| 18 | GB | 29 | +0.163 | +0.136 | +0.027 | +4.7 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 1 | -1.5 | +0.11 | +14.2 |
Opponent adjustment. A unit's rating for a game is its average over its other games that
season, blended with 16 games' worth of prior (league average plus half of last season's gap from it;
24 games for pass defence, which is noisier). Early in a season that leans on last year; by
midseason it is mostly this year. Chosen by how well it predicts a held-out game: it cut that error by about
a quarter against no shrinkage, and adjusted numbers agree between odd and even weeks more than raw ones do
(team EPA margin r 0.52 → 0.55, defence 0.32 → 0.36, QB EPA/dropback 0.47 → 0.49, 2016–2025).
Win expectancy is a logistic fit of wins on EPA margin over 6,036 completed games (it names the winner 86.5% of the time). These describe what happened; one game is not a forecast. Play-by-play credits the quarterback with every sack and dropback, so a bad line shows up in his numbers. Seasons 2016–2026, built 2026-09-14 01:25 UTC, from nflverse. Write-up:
Win expectancy is a logistic fit of wins on EPA margin over 6,036 completed games (it names the winner 86.5% of the time). These describe what happened; one game is not a forecast. Play-by-play credits the quarterback with every sack and dropback, so a bad line shows up in his numbers. Seasons 2016–2026, built 2026-09-14 01:25 UTC, from nflverse. Write-up:
backtests/nfl_game_quality/FINDINGS.md.