Game quality
What each result was worth beyond the score. Every play is graded by EPA (expected points added), then adjusted for who it came against: a defence's rating is what it allowed to everyone else that season, so a big day against a bad defence counts for less. Season views include playoff games.
J.J. McCarthy — 2025
Adj EPA / dropback
-0.220
Raw EPA / dropback
-0.198
Dropbacks
273
Turnover EPA
-67.4
WPA
-0.59
| Week | Opp | Dropbacks | Adj EPA/db | Raw EPA/db | Schedule | Total adj EPA | INT / FL | Turnover EPA | Sacks | Sack EPA | WPA | CPOE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | CHI | 25 | -0.403 | -0.393 | -0.010 | -10.1 | 1 / 0 | -9.7 | 3 | -5.1 | -0.06 | -3.3 |
| 2 | ATL | 27 | -0.681 | -0.665 | -0.015 | -18.4 | 2 / 1 | -14.3 | 6 | -13.0 | -0.41 | -11.1 |
| 9 | DET | 30 | -0.227 | -0.247 | +0.020 | -6.8 | 1 / 0 | -2.5 | 5 | -8.4 | -0.02 | -0.1 |
| 10 | BAL | 44 | -0.225 | -0.225 | +0.000 | -9.9 | 2 / 0 | -6.2 | 1 | -1.0 | -0.25 | -11.6 |
| 11 | CHI | 32 | -0.420 | -0.408 | -0.012 | -13.4 | 2 / 0 | -9.5 | 0 | +0.0 | -0.09 | -15.2 |
| 12 | GB | 24 | -0.696 | -0.686 | -0.010 | -16.7 | 2 / 0 | -7.3 | 5 | -6.8 | -0.25 | -4.2 |
| 14 | WAS | 27 | +0.268 | +0.343 | -0.075 | +7.2 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 4 | -4.6 | +0.22 | +0.1 |
| 15 | DAL | 24 | +0.398 | +0.501 | -0.103 | +9.5 | 1 / 0 | -5.6 | 0 | +0.0 | +0.37 | +1.7 |
| 16 | NYG | 17 | -0.545 | -0.491 | -0.054 | -9.3 | 1 / 1 | -12.2 | 3 | -10.5 | -0.28 | -3.6 |
| 18 | GB | 23 | +0.335 | +0.329 | +0.006 | +7.7 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 0 | +0.0 | +0.18 | -0.7 |
Opponent adjustment. A unit's rating for a game is its average over its other games that
season, blended with 16 games' worth of prior (league average plus half of last season's gap from it;
24 games for pass defence, which is noisier). Early in a season that leans on last year; by
midseason it is mostly this year. Chosen by how well it predicts a held-out game: it cut that error by about
a quarter against no shrinkage, and adjusted numbers agree between odd and even weeks more than raw ones do
(team EPA margin r 0.52 → 0.55, defence 0.32 → 0.36, QB EPA/dropback 0.47 → 0.49, 2016–2025).
Win expectancy is a logistic fit of wins on EPA margin over 6,036 completed games (it names the winner 86.5% of the time). These describe what happened; one game is not a forecast. Play-by-play credits the quarterback with every sack and dropback, so a bad line shows up in his numbers. Seasons 2016–2026, built 2026-09-14 01:25 UTC, from nflverse. Write-up:
Win expectancy is a logistic fit of wins on EPA margin over 6,036 completed games (it names the winner 86.5% of the time). These describe what happened; one game is not a forecast. Play-by-play credits the quarterback with every sack and dropback, so a bad line shows up in his numbers. Seasons 2016–2026, built 2026-09-14 01:25 UTC, from nflverse. Write-up:
backtests/nfl_game_quality/FINDINGS.md.