Game quality
What each result was worth beyond the score. Every play is graded by EPA (expected points added), then adjusted for who it came against: a defence's rating is what it allowed to everyone else that season, so a big day against a bad defence counts for less. Season views include playoff games.
Quinn Ewers — 2025
Adj EPA / dropback
-0.042
Raw EPA / dropback
-0.025
Dropbacks
91
Turnover EPA
-13.8
WPA
+0.10
| Week | Opp | Dropbacks | Adj EPA/db | Raw EPA/db | Schedule | Total adj EPA | INT / FL | Turnover EPA | Sacks | Sack EPA | WPA | CPOE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | CLE | 10 | -0.260 | -0.304 | +0.044 | -2.6 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 2 | -4.5 | -0.00 | -5.6 |
| 16 | CIN | 30 | +0.095 | +0.156 | -0.060 | +2.9 | 2 / 0 | -7.8 | 0 | +0.0 | +0.04 | +1.6 |
| 17 | TB | 24 | +0.161 | +0.198 | -0.037 | +3.9 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 2 | -1.9 | +0.19 | +0.4 |
| 18 | NE | 27 | -0.295 | -0.320 | +0.025 | -8.0 | 1 / 0 | -5.9 | 4 | -6.1 | -0.13 | +3.2 |
Opponent adjustment. A unit's rating for a game is its average over its other games that
season, blended with 16 games' worth of prior (league average plus half of last season's gap from it;
24 games for pass defence, which is noisier). Early in a season that leans on last year; by
midseason it is mostly this year. Chosen by how well it predicts a held-out game: it cut that error by about
a quarter against no shrinkage, and adjusted numbers agree between odd and even weeks more than raw ones do
(team EPA margin r 0.52 → 0.55, defence 0.32 → 0.36, QB EPA/dropback 0.47 → 0.49, 2016–2025).
Win expectancy is a logistic fit of wins on EPA margin over 6,036 completed games (it names the winner 86.5% of the time). These describe what happened; one game is not a forecast. Play-by-play credits the quarterback with every sack and dropback, so a bad line shows up in his numbers. Seasons 2016–2026, built 2026-09-14 01:25 UTC, from nflverse. Write-up:
Win expectancy is a logistic fit of wins on EPA margin over 6,036 completed games (it names the winner 86.5% of the time). These describe what happened; one game is not a forecast. Play-by-play credits the quarterback with every sack and dropback, so a bad line shows up in his numbers. Seasons 2016–2026, built 2026-09-14 01:25 UTC, from nflverse. Write-up:
backtests/nfl_game_quality/FINDINGS.md.