Game quality
What each result was worth beyond the score. Every play is graded by EPA (expected points added), then adjusted for who it came against: a defence's rating is what it allowed to everyone else that season, so a big day against a bad defence counts for less. Season views include playoff games.
Brady Cook — 2025
Adj EPA / dropback
-0.395
Raw EPA / dropback
-0.395
Dropbacks
173
Turnover EPA
-30.2
WPA
-0.59
| Week | Opp | Dropbacks | Adj EPA/db | Raw EPA/db | Schedule | Total adj EPA | INT / FL | Turnover EPA | Sacks | Sack EPA | WPA | CPOE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14 | MIA | 36 | -0.556 | -0.494 | -0.062 | -20.0 | 2 / 0 | -7.7 | 6 | -9.4 | -0.14 | -18.2 |
| 15 | JAX | 36 | -0.204 | -0.216 | +0.012 | -7.3 | 3 / 0 | -11.6 | 3 | -5.1 | +0.02 | +3.1 |
| 16 | NO | 43 | -0.484 | -0.495 | +0.011 | -20.8 | 1 / 1 | -8.3 | 8 | -16.0 | -0.32 | -11.8 |
| 17 | NE | 34 | -0.422 | -0.446 | +0.024 | -14.3 | 1 / 0 | -2.5 | 1 | -0.6 | -0.03 | -7.0 |
| 18 | BUF | 24 | -0.242 | -0.264 | +0.022 | -5.8 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 1 | -1.0 | -0.12 | -19.9 |
Opponent adjustment. A unit's rating for a game is its average over its other games that
season, blended with 16 games' worth of prior (league average plus half of last season's gap from it;
24 games for pass defence, which is noisier). Early in a season that leans on last year; by
midseason it is mostly this year. Chosen by how well it predicts a held-out game: it cut that error by about
a quarter against no shrinkage, and adjusted numbers agree between odd and even weeks more than raw ones do
(team EPA margin r 0.52 → 0.55, defence 0.32 → 0.36, QB EPA/dropback 0.47 → 0.49, 2016–2025).
Win expectancy is a logistic fit of wins on EPA margin over 6,036 completed games (it names the winner 86.5% of the time). These describe what happened; one game is not a forecast. Play-by-play credits the quarterback with every sack and dropback, so a bad line shows up in his numbers. Seasons 2016–2026, built 2026-09-14 01:25 UTC, from nflverse. Write-up:
Win expectancy is a logistic fit of wins on EPA margin over 6,036 completed games (it names the winner 86.5% of the time). These describe what happened; one game is not a forecast. Play-by-play credits the quarterback with every sack and dropback, so a bad line shows up in his numbers. Seasons 2016–2026, built 2026-09-14 01:25 UTC, from nflverse. Write-up:
backtests/nfl_game_quality/FINDINGS.md.