Game quality
What each result was worth beyond the score. Every play is graded by EPA (expected points added), then adjusted for who it came against: a defence's rating is what it allowed to everyone else that season, so a big day against a bad defence counts for less. Season views include playoff games.
Max Brosmer — 2025
Adj EPA / dropback
-0.647
Raw EPA / dropback
-0.665
Dropbacks
85
Turnover EPA
-26.2
WPA
-1.13
| Week | Opp | Dropbacks | Adj EPA/db | Raw EPA/db | Schedule | Total adj EPA | INT / FL | Turnover EPA | Sacks | Sack EPA | WPA | CPOE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | CIN | 4 | -1.017 | -0.956 | -0.061 | -4.1 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 0 | +0.0 | +0.00 | -29.9 |
| 8 | LAC | 4 | +0.062 | -0.003 | +0.065 | +0.2 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 0 | +0.0 | -0.00 | -8.1 |
| 13 | SEA | 34 | -0.804 | -0.857 | +0.053 | -27.3 | 4 / 0 | -18.8 | 4 | -6.9 | -0.58 | -4.2 |
| 16 | NYG | 10 | -0.109 | -0.054 | -0.054 | -1.1 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 1 | -1.6 | +0.10 | +10.7 |
| 17 | DET | 23 | -0.755 | -0.764 | +0.008 | -17.4 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 7 | -10.9 | -0.64 | -9.4 |
| 18 | GB | 10 | -0.539 | -0.544 | +0.006 | -5.4 | 0 / 1 | -7.4 | 2 | -9.3 | -0.01 | +8.5 |
Opponent adjustment. A unit's rating for a game is its average over its other games that
season, blended with 16 games' worth of prior (league average plus half of last season's gap from it;
24 games for pass defence, which is noisier). Early in a season that leans on last year; by
midseason it is mostly this year. Chosen by how well it predicts a held-out game: it cut that error by about
a quarter against no shrinkage, and adjusted numbers agree between odd and even weeks more than raw ones do
(team EPA margin r 0.52 → 0.55, defence 0.32 → 0.36, QB EPA/dropback 0.47 → 0.49, 2016–2025).
Win expectancy is a logistic fit of wins on EPA margin over 6,036 completed games (it names the winner 86.5% of the time). These describe what happened; one game is not a forecast. Play-by-play credits the quarterback with every sack and dropback, so a bad line shows up in his numbers. Seasons 2016–2026, built 2026-09-14 01:25 UTC, from nflverse. Write-up:
Win expectancy is a logistic fit of wins on EPA margin over 6,036 completed games (it names the winner 86.5% of the time). These describe what happened; one game is not a forecast. Play-by-play credits the quarterback with every sack and dropback, so a bad line shows up in his numbers. Seasons 2016–2026, built 2026-09-14 01:25 UTC, from nflverse. Write-up:
backtests/nfl_game_quality/FINDINGS.md.