Game quality
What each result was worth beyond the score. Every play is graded by EPA (expected points added), then adjusted for who it came against: a defence's rating is what it allowed to everyone else that season, so a big day against a bad defence counts for less. Season views include playoff games.
Cam Ward — 2025
Adj EPA / dropback
-0.166
Raw EPA / dropback
-0.185
Dropbacks
592
Turnover EPA
-66.9
WPA
-2.05
| Week | Opp | Dropbacks | Adj EPA/db | Raw EPA/db | Schedule | Total adj EPA | INT / FL | Turnover EPA | Sacks | Sack EPA | WPA | CPOE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | DEN | 34 | -0.303 | -0.394 | +0.091 | -10.3 | 0 / 1 | -1.9 | 6 | -9.7 | -0.62 | -12.6 |
| 2 | LA | 38 | -0.174 | -0.177 | +0.004 | -6.6 | 0 / 1 | -5.2 | 5 | -11.0 | -0.28 | -4.8 |
| 3 | IND | 42 | -0.332 | -0.298 | -0.034 | -14.0 | 1 / 0 | -7.9 | 4 | -5.6 | -0.34 | -1.4 |
| 4 | HOU | 27 | -0.509 | -0.609 | +0.100 | -13.8 | 1 / 0 | -5.6 | 2 | -2.9 | -0.17 | -24.5 |
| 5 | ARI | 41 | -0.035 | +0.039 | -0.074 | -1.4 | 1 / 0 | +2.9 | 2 | -4.6 | +0.31 | -9.6 |
| 6 | LV | 43 | -0.384 | -0.340 | -0.044 | -16.5 | 1 / 2 | -12.4 | 6 | -16.7 | -0.32 | +5.5 |
| 7 | NE | 39 | -0.276 | -0.301 | +0.025 | -10.8 | 1 / 1 | -13.0 | 5 | -16.7 | -0.02 | +6.7 |
| 8 | IND | 41 | -0.237 | -0.204 | -0.032 | -9.7 | 1 / 0 | -3.6 | 4 | -8.2 | +0.10 | -7.2 |
| 9 | LAC | 25 | +0.004 | -0.068 | +0.072 | +0.1 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 4 | -5.1 | -0.07 | -11.8 |
| 11 | HOU | 40 | +0.044 | -0.068 | +0.112 | +1.7 | 0 / 1 | -4.4 | 3 | -7.8 | -0.05 | -2.0 |
| 12 | SEA | 46 | +0.122 | +0.046 | +0.075 | +5.6 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 4 | -7.2 | -0.13 | +4.9 |
| 13 | JAX | 41 | -0.492 | -0.498 | +0.006 | -20.2 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 3 | -4.8 | -0.19 | -1.7 |
| 14 | CLE | 29 | -0.248 | -0.303 | +0.055 | -7.2 | 1 / 0 | -7.0 | 1 | -1.6 | -0.19 | -10.6 |
| 15 | SF | 29 | +0.021 | +0.060 | -0.039 | +0.6 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 0 | +0.0 | -0.01 | -2.7 |
| 16 | KC | 30 | +0.244 | +0.226 | +0.018 | +7.3 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 2 | -4.2 | +0.11 | +10.4 |
| 17 | NO | 44 | -0.176 | -0.195 | +0.020 | -7.7 | 0 / 1 | -8.8 | 4 | -14.3 | -0.32 | -0.3 |
| 18 | JAX | 3 | +1.482 | +1.478 | +0.003 | +4.4 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 0 | +0.0 | +0.15 | +30.0 |
Opponent adjustment. A unit's rating for a game is its average over its other games that
season, blended with 16 games' worth of prior (league average plus half of last season's gap from it;
24 games for pass defence, which is noisier). Early in a season that leans on last year; by
midseason it is mostly this year. Chosen by how well it predicts a held-out game: it cut that error by about
a quarter against no shrinkage, and adjusted numbers agree between odd and even weeks more than raw ones do
(team EPA margin r 0.52 → 0.55, defence 0.32 → 0.36, QB EPA/dropback 0.47 → 0.49, 2016–2025).
Win expectancy is a logistic fit of wins on EPA margin over 6,036 completed games (it names the winner 86.5% of the time). These describe what happened; one game is not a forecast. Play-by-play credits the quarterback with every sack and dropback, so a bad line shows up in his numbers. Seasons 2016–2026, built 2026-09-14 01:25 UTC, from nflverse. Write-up:
Win expectancy is a logistic fit of wins on EPA margin over 6,036 completed games (it names the winner 86.5% of the time). These describe what happened; one game is not a forecast. Play-by-play credits the quarterback with every sack and dropback, so a bad line shows up in his numbers. Seasons 2016–2026, built 2026-09-14 01:25 UTC, from nflverse. Write-up:
backtests/nfl_game_quality/FINDINGS.md.