Game quality
What each result was worth beyond the score. Every play is graded by EPA (expected points added), then adjusted for who it came against: a defence's rating is what it allowed to everyone else that season, so a big day against a bad defence counts for less. Season views include playoff games.
Dillon Gabriel — 2025
Adj EPA / dropback
-0.228
Raw EPA / dropback
-0.220
Dropbacks
204
Turnover EPA
-7.7
WPA
-1.03
| Week | Opp | Dropbacks | Adj EPA/db | Raw EPA/db | Schedule | Total adj EPA | INT / FL | Turnover EPA | Sacks | Sack EPA | WPA | CPOE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | BAL | 3 | +1.135 | +1.141 | -0.006 | +3.4 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 0 | +0.0 | -0.00 | +36.5 |
| 4 | DET | 1 | -1.203 | -1.213 | +0.010 | -1.2 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 0 | +0.0 | -0.00 | -57.1 |
| 5 | MIN | 34 | +0.033 | -0.065 | +0.098 | +1.1 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 2 | -2.7 | -0.23 | -6.8 |
| 6 | PIT | 58 | -0.246 | -0.239 | -0.007 | -14.3 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 6 | -9.6 | -0.21 | -10.2 |
| 7 | MIA | 20 | -0.004 | +0.042 | -0.046 | -0.1 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 2 | -3.0 | +0.09 | +0.2 |
| 8 | NE | 37 | -0.516 | -0.536 | +0.020 | -19.1 | 2 / 0 | -7.7 | 1 | -1.3 | -0.17 | -5.3 |
| 10 | NYJ | 38 | -0.308 | -0.194 | -0.114 | -11.7 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 6 | -9.9 | -0.29 | -16.4 |
| 11 | BAL | 11 | -0.243 | -0.235 | -0.008 | -2.7 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 1 | -1.4 | -0.16 | +0.2 |
| 13 | SF | 1 | -0.617 | -0.571 | -0.046 | -0.6 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 0 | +0.0 | -0.01 | +23.7 |
| 16 | BUF | 1 | -1.387 | -1.408 | +0.022 | -1.4 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 1 | -1.4 | -0.06 | — |
Opponent adjustment. A unit's rating for a game is its average over its other games that
season, blended with 16 games' worth of prior (league average plus half of last season's gap from it;
24 games for pass defence, which is noisier). Early in a season that leans on last year; by
midseason it is mostly this year. Chosen by how well it predicts a held-out game: it cut that error by about
a quarter against no shrinkage, and adjusted numbers agree between odd and even weeks more than raw ones do
(team EPA margin r 0.52 → 0.55, defence 0.32 → 0.36, QB EPA/dropback 0.47 → 0.49, 2016–2025).
Win expectancy is a logistic fit of wins on EPA margin over 6,036 completed games (it names the winner 86.5% of the time). These describe what happened; one game is not a forecast. Play-by-play credits the quarterback with every sack and dropback, so a bad line shows up in his numbers. Seasons 2016–2026, built 2026-09-14 01:25 UTC, from nflverse. Write-up:
Win expectancy is a logistic fit of wins on EPA margin over 6,036 completed games (it names the winner 86.5% of the time). These describe what happened; one game is not a forecast. Play-by-play credits the quarterback with every sack and dropback, so a bad line shows up in his numbers. Seasons 2016–2026, built 2026-09-14 01:25 UTC, from nflverse. Write-up:
backtests/nfl_game_quality/FINDINGS.md.