Game quality
What each result was worth beyond the score. Every play is graded by EPA (expected points added), then adjusted for who it came against: a defence's rating is what it allowed to everyone else that season, so a big day against a bad defence counts for less. Season views include playoff games.
Tyler Shough — 2025
Adj EPA / dropback
-0.041
Raw EPA / dropback
+0.007
Dropbacks
356
Turnover EPA
-33.2
WPA
+0.63
| Week | Opp | Dropbacks | Adj EPA/db | Raw EPA/db | Schedule | Total adj EPA | INT / FL | Turnover EPA | Sacks | Sack EPA | WPA | CPOE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | SEA | 2 | -0.814 | -0.887 | +0.073 | -1.6 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 0 | +0.0 | -0.00 | -52.1 |
| 8 | TB | 32 | -0.524 | -0.471 | -0.053 | -16.8 | 1 / 0 | -4.8 | 2 | -4.2 | -0.08 | -13.9 |
| 9 | LA | 24 | +0.011 | +0.004 | +0.007 | +0.3 | 1 / 0 | -3.2 | 1 | -2.0 | -0.05 | -2.9 |
| 10 | CAR | 29 | +0.330 | +0.406 | -0.076 | +9.6 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 2 | -5.5 | +0.43 | +10.4 |
| 12 | ATL | 48 | -0.223 | -0.214 | -0.008 | -10.7 | 1 / 0 | -2.2 | 5 | -7.4 | -0.12 | +0.0 |
| 13 | MIA | 43 | -0.312 | -0.260 | -0.052 | -13.4 | 1 / 1 | -11.2 | 4 | -10.7 | -0.32 | +9.8 |
| 14 | TB | 23 | +0.039 | +0.078 | -0.038 | +0.9 | 1 / 0 | -4.3 | 3 | -5.2 | +0.29 | -2.3 |
| 15 | CAR | 36 | +0.163 | +0.242 | -0.079 | +5.9 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 5 | -8.6 | +0.29 | +4.1 |
| 16 | NYJ | 51 | -0.054 | +0.054 | -0.108 | -2.8 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 3 | -5.3 | +0.11 | -1.5 |
| 17 | TEN | 29 | +0.572 | +0.626 | -0.054 | +16.6 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 2 | -4.9 | +0.47 | +19.8 |
| 18 | ATL | 39 | -0.067 | -0.067 | -0.000 | -2.6 | 1 / 0 | -7.5 | 4 | -6.5 | -0.41 | -1.7 |
Opponent adjustment. A unit's rating for a game is its average over its other games that
season, blended with 16 games' worth of prior (league average plus half of last season's gap from it;
24 games for pass defence, which is noisier). Early in a season that leans on last year; by
midseason it is mostly this year. Chosen by how well it predicts a held-out game: it cut that error by about
a quarter against no shrinkage, and adjusted numbers agree between odd and even weeks more than raw ones do
(team EPA margin r 0.52 → 0.55, defence 0.32 → 0.36, QB EPA/dropback 0.47 → 0.49, 2016–2025).
Win expectancy is a logistic fit of wins on EPA margin over 6,036 completed games (it names the winner 86.5% of the time). These describe what happened; one game is not a forecast. Play-by-play credits the quarterback with every sack and dropback, so a bad line shows up in his numbers. Seasons 2016–2026, built 2026-09-14 01:25 UTC, from nflverse. Write-up:
Win expectancy is a logistic fit of wins on EPA margin over 6,036 completed games (it names the winner 86.5% of the time). These describe what happened; one game is not a forecast. Play-by-play credits the quarterback with every sack and dropback, so a bad line shows up in his numbers. Seasons 2016–2026, built 2026-09-14 01:25 UTC, from nflverse. Write-up:
backtests/nfl_game_quality/FINDINGS.md.