Game quality
What each result was worth beyond the score. Every play is graded by EPA (expected points added), then adjusted for who it came against: a defence's rating is what it allowed to everyone else that season, so a big day against a bad defence counts for less. Season views include playoff games.
Ryan Tannehill — 2023
Adj EPA / dropback
-0.074
Raw EPA / dropback
-0.087
Dropbacks
260
Turnover EPA
-23.6
WPA
+0.20
| Week | Opp | Dropbacks | Adj EPA/db | Raw EPA/db | Schedule | Total adj EPA | INT / FL | Turnover EPA | Sacks | Sack EPA | WPA | CPOE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | NO | 37 | -0.279 | -0.325 | +0.046 | -10.3 | 3 / 0 | -9.7 | 3 | -3.0 | -0.21 | -19.3 |
| 2 | LAC | 29 | +0.038 | +0.050 | -0.012 | +1.1 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 5 | -11.7 | +0.37 | +16.4 |
| 3 | CLE | 30 | -0.376 | -0.468 | +0.091 | -11.3 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 5 | -9.1 | -0.20 | -5.9 |
| 4 | CIN | 28 | +0.251 | +0.256 | -0.005 | +7.0 | 1 / 0 | -2.4 | 3 | -5.1 | +0.11 | +10.9 |
| 5 | IND | 34 | +0.273 | +0.278 | -0.005 | +9.3 | 1 / 0 | -1.2 | 1 | -0.3 | +0.39 | +2.9 |
| 6 | BAL | 18 | -0.517 | -0.584 | +0.067 | -9.3 | 1 / 0 | -4.3 | 2 | -4.4 | -0.14 | -5.4 |
| 16 | SEA | 31 | -0.133 | -0.083 | -0.050 | -4.1 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 6 | -5.4 | -0.18 | +3.3 |
| 17 | HOU | 25 | -0.092 | -0.097 | +0.005 | -2.3 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 5 | -7.0 | +0.00 | +13.0 |
| 18 | JAX | 28 | +0.024 | +0.031 | -0.007 | +0.7 | 1 / 0 | -5.9 | 2 | -2.2 | +0.06 | +0.1 |
Opponent adjustment. A unit's rating for a game is its average over its other games that
season, blended with 16 games' worth of prior (league average plus half of last season's gap from it;
24 games for pass defence, which is noisier). Early in a season that leans on last year; by
midseason it is mostly this year. Chosen by how well it predicts a held-out game: it cut that error by about
a quarter against no shrinkage, and adjusted numbers agree between odd and even weeks more than raw ones do
(team EPA margin r 0.52 → 0.55, defence 0.32 → 0.36, QB EPA/dropback 0.47 → 0.49, 2016–2025).
Win expectancy is a logistic fit of wins on EPA margin over 6,036 completed games (it names the winner 86.5% of the time). These describe what happened; one game is not a forecast. Play-by-play credits the quarterback with every sack and dropback, so a bad line shows up in his numbers. Seasons 2016–2026, built 2026-09-14 01:25 UTC, from nflverse. Write-up:
Win expectancy is a logistic fit of wins on EPA margin over 6,036 completed games (it names the winner 86.5% of the time). These describe what happened; one game is not a forecast. Play-by-play credits the quarterback with every sack and dropback, so a bad line shows up in his numbers. Seasons 2016–2026, built 2026-09-14 01:25 UTC, from nflverse. Write-up:
backtests/nfl_game_quality/FINDINGS.md.