Game quality
What each result was worth beyond the score. Every play is graded by EPA (expected points added), then adjusted for who it came against: a defence's rating is what it allowed to everyone else that season, so a big day against a bad defence counts for less. Season views include playoff games.
Jameis Winston — 2021
Adj EPA / dropback
+0.135
Raw EPA / dropback
+0.127
Dropbacks
172
Turnover EPA
-15.3
WPA
+0.30
| Week | Opp | Dropbacks | Adj EPA/db | Raw EPA/db | Schedule | Total adj EPA | INT / FL | Turnover EPA | Sacks | Sack EPA | WPA | CPOE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | GB | 20 | +0.869 | +0.825 | +0.044 | +17.4 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 0 | +0.0 | +0.12 | +10.6 |
| 2 | CAR | 26 | -0.730 | -0.717 | -0.013 | -19.0 | 2 / 0 | -4.3 | 4 | -8.5 | -0.18 | -10.6 |
| 3 | NE | 24 | +0.263 | +0.219 | +0.044 | +6.3 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 3 | -4.9 | +0.19 | +3.0 |
| 4 | NYG | 23 | +0.478 | +0.476 | +0.002 | +11.0 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 0 | +0.0 | +0.39 | -0.9 |
| 5 | WAS | 32 | +0.223 | +0.224 | -0.001 | +7.1 | 1 / 1 | -11.0 | 2 | -6.6 | +0.09 | -4.7 |
| 7 | SEA | 37 | -0.031 | -0.008 | -0.023 | -1.2 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 2 | -2.4 | -0.37 | -6.9 |
| 8 | TB | 10 | +0.155 | +0.087 | +0.068 | +1.5 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 0 | +0.0 | +0.06 | -14.7 |
Opponent adjustment. A unit's rating for a game is its average over its other games that
season, blended with 16 games' worth of prior (league average plus half of last season's gap from it;
24 games for pass defence, which is noisier). Early in a season that leans on last year; by
midseason it is mostly this year. Chosen by how well it predicts a held-out game: it cut that error by about
a quarter against no shrinkage, and adjusted numbers agree between odd and even weeks more than raw ones do
(team EPA margin r 0.52 → 0.55, defence 0.32 → 0.36, QB EPA/dropback 0.47 → 0.49, 2016–2025).
Win expectancy is a logistic fit of wins on EPA margin over 6,036 completed games (it names the winner 86.5% of the time). These describe what happened; one game is not a forecast. Play-by-play credits the quarterback with every sack and dropback, so a bad line shows up in his numbers. Seasons 2016–2026, built 2026-09-14 01:25 UTC, from nflverse. Write-up:
Win expectancy is a logistic fit of wins on EPA margin over 6,036 completed games (it names the winner 86.5% of the time). These describe what happened; one game is not a forecast. Play-by-play credits the quarterback with every sack and dropback, so a bad line shows up in his numbers. Seasons 2016–2026, built 2026-09-14 01:25 UTC, from nflverse. Write-up:
backtests/nfl_game_quality/FINDINGS.md.