Game quality
What each result was worth beyond the score. Every play is graded by EPA (expected points added), then adjusted for who it came against: a defence's rating is what it allowed to everyone else that season, so a big day against a bad defence counts for less. Season views include playoff games.
Patrick Mahomes — 2024
Adj EPA / dropback
+0.117
Raw EPA / dropback
+0.102
Dropbacks
715
Turnover EPA
-67.7
WPA
+3.30
| Week | Opp | Dropbacks | Adj EPA/db | Raw EPA/db | Schedule | Total adj EPA | INT / FL | Turnover EPA | Sacks | Sack EPA | WPA | CPOE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | BAL | 30 | +0.470 | +0.369 | +0.101 | +14.1 | 1 / 0 | -3.8 | 2 | -2.7 | +0.24 | +4.2 |
| 2 | CIN | 28 | -0.370 | -0.345 | -0.025 | -10.4 | 2 / 0 | -8.0 | 2 | -1.9 | -0.30 | +4.6 |
| 3 | ATL | 39 | +0.032 | +0.062 | -0.030 | +1.3 | 1 / 0 | -5.7 | 0 | +0.0 | +0.15 | +1.3 |
| 4 | LAC | 32 | -0.031 | -0.050 | +0.019 | -1.0 | 1 / 0 | -6.6 | 3 | -5.5 | +0.28 | -6.7 |
| 5 | NO | 41 | +0.108 | +0.072 | +0.036 | +4.4 | 1 / 0 | -7.7 | 2 | -2.2 | +0.10 | +10.1 |
| 7 | SF | 29 | -0.174 | -0.197 | +0.024 | -5.0 | 2 / 0 | -10.1 | 2 | -2.7 | -0.09 | -2.5 |
| 8 | LV | 38 | +0.298 | +0.279 | +0.019 | +11.3 | 1 / 0 | -5.0 | 1 | -2.7 | +0.45 | +6.3 |
| 9 | TB | 48 | +0.306 | +0.336 | -0.030 | +14.7 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 4 | -6.3 | +0.76 | +12.4 |
| 10 | DEN | 46 | +0.102 | +0.084 | +0.017 | +4.7 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 4 | -6.7 | +0.22 | +2.3 |
| 11 | BUF | 35 | +0.149 | +0.160 | -0.011 | +5.2 | 2 / 0 | -3.6 | 2 | -3.4 | -0.01 | +9.6 |
| 12 | CAR | 42 | +0.168 | +0.218 | -0.050 | +7.1 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 5 | -5.6 | +0.41 | +7.7 |
| 13 | LV | 50 | +0.035 | +0.024 | +0.011 | +1.8 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 5 | -6.7 | -0.06 | -7.4 |
| 14 | LAC | 40 | +0.038 | +0.016 | +0.022 | +1.5 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 3 | -4.4 | +0.07 | +0.1 |
| 15 | CLE | 38 | -0.068 | -0.118 | +0.050 | -2.6 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 0 | +0.0 | +0.09 | -9.1 |
| 16 | HOU | 42 | +0.270 | +0.226 | +0.044 | +11.3 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 1 | -2.0 | +0.34 | +0.4 |
| 17 | PIT | 39 | +0.519 | +0.491 | +0.028 | +20.2 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 0 | +0.0 | +0.43 | +7.7 |
| 20 | HOU | 28 | +0.018 | -0.019 | +0.037 | +0.5 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 3 | -4.5 | +0.06 | +0.3 |
| 21 | BUF | 29 | +0.595 | +0.594 | +0.001 | +17.2 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 2 | -3.4 | +0.47 | +5.2 |
| 22 | PHI | 41 | -0.316 | -0.347 | +0.031 | -13.0 | 2 / 1 | -17.1 | 6 | -11.8 | -0.30 | -3.1 |
Opponent adjustment. A unit's rating for a game is its average over its other games that
season, blended with 16 games' worth of prior (league average plus half of last season's gap from it;
24 games for pass defence, which is noisier). Early in a season that leans on last year; by
midseason it is mostly this year. Chosen by how well it predicts a held-out game: it cut that error by about
a quarter against no shrinkage, and adjusted numbers agree between odd and even weeks more than raw ones do
(team EPA margin r 0.52 → 0.55, defence 0.32 → 0.36, QB EPA/dropback 0.47 → 0.49, 2016–2025).
Win expectancy is a logistic fit of wins on EPA margin over 6,036 completed games (it names the winner 86.5% of the time). These describe what happened; one game is not a forecast. Play-by-play credits the quarterback with every sack and dropback, so a bad line shows up in his numbers. Seasons 2016–2026, built 2026-09-14 01:25 UTC, from nflverse. Write-up:
Win expectancy is a logistic fit of wins on EPA margin over 6,036 completed games (it names the winner 86.5% of the time). These describe what happened; one game is not a forecast. Play-by-play credits the quarterback with every sack and dropback, so a bad line shows up in his numbers. Seasons 2016–2026, built 2026-09-14 01:25 UTC, from nflverse. Write-up:
backtests/nfl_game_quality/FINDINGS.md.