Game quality
What each result was worth beyond the score. Every play is graded by EPA (expected points added), then adjusted for who it came against: a defence's rating is what it allowed to everyone else that season, so a big day against a bad defence counts for less. Season views include playoff games.
Bo Nix — 2025
Adj EPA / dropback
+0.089
Raw EPA / dropback
+0.097
Dropbacks
684
Turnover EPA
-47.0
WPA
+3.16
| Week | Opp | Dropbacks | Adj EPA/db | Raw EPA/db | Schedule | Total adj EPA | INT / FL | Turnover EPA | Sacks | Sack EPA | WPA | CPOE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | TEN | 41 | -0.260 | -0.187 | -0.073 | -10.7 | 2 / 1 | -13.6 | 1 | -5.2 | -0.18 | -1.7 |
| 2 | IND | 30 | +0.259 | +0.278 | -0.020 | +7.8 | 1 / 0 | -3.9 | 0 | +0.0 | +0.26 | +1.0 |
| 3 | LAC | 27 | +0.016 | -0.057 | +0.073 | +0.4 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 2 | -1.8 | +0.04 | -8.0 |
| 4 | CIN | 42 | +0.261 | +0.316 | -0.055 | +11.0 | 1 / 0 | -4.5 | 0 | +0.0 | +0.19 | -2.2 |
| 5 | PHI | 42 | +0.191 | +0.101 | +0.090 | +8.0 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 2 | -2.8 | +0.27 | +0.8 |
| 6 | NYJ | 31 | +0.057 | +0.165 | -0.108 | +1.8 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 1 | -0.9 | +0.06 | +3.5 |
| 7 | NYG | 53 | -0.088 | -0.037 | -0.050 | -4.6 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 2 | -1.8 | +0.34 | -10.9 |
| 8 | DAL | 30 | +0.365 | +0.470 | -0.104 | +11.0 | 1 / 0 | -5.3 | 0 | +0.0 | +0.19 | +9.0 |
| 9 | HOU | 39 | +0.021 | -0.090 | +0.111 | +0.8 | 1 / 0 | -2.8 | 1 | -0.9 | -0.08 | -10.2 |
| 10 | LV | 29 | -0.270 | -0.226 | -0.044 | -7.8 | 2 / 0 | -3.9 | 1 | -2.3 | -0.26 | -7.2 |
| 11 | KC | 39 | +0.144 | +0.130 | +0.015 | +5.6 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 2 | -3.0 | +0.33 | +3.7 |
| 13 | WAS | 46 | +0.136 | +0.215 | -0.079 | +6.3 | 1 / 0 | -3.7 | 1 | -2.0 | +0.61 | -4.0 |
| 14 | LV | 41 | +0.114 | +0.144 | -0.030 | +4.7 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 3 | -2.6 | +0.22 | +11.0 |
| 15 | GB | 34 | +0.624 | +0.606 | +0.019 | +21.2 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 0 | +0.0 | +0.79 | +8.6 |
| 16 | JAX | 48 | +0.023 | +0.006 | +0.017 | +1.1 | 1 / 0 | -2.1 | 1 | -1.8 | +0.14 | -3.1 |
| 17 | KC | 39 | +0.091 | +0.075 | +0.016 | +3.6 | 1 / 0 | -2.5 | 1 | -1.9 | +0.19 | +3.6 |
| 18 | LAC | 27 | -0.141 | -0.213 | +0.072 | -3.8 | 0 / 0 | +0.0 | 4 | -5.7 | -0.07 | -12.7 |
| 20 | BUF | 46 | +0.105 | +0.075 | +0.030 | +4.9 | 1 / 0 | -4.7 | 0 | +0.0 | +0.13 | -4.7 |
Opponent adjustment. A unit's rating for a game is its average over its other games that
season, blended with 16 games' worth of prior (league average plus half of last season's gap from it;
24 games for pass defence, which is noisier). Early in a season that leans on last year; by
midseason it is mostly this year. Chosen by how well it predicts a held-out game: it cut that error by about
a quarter against no shrinkage, and adjusted numbers agree between odd and even weeks more than raw ones do
(team EPA margin r 0.52 → 0.55, defence 0.32 → 0.36, QB EPA/dropback 0.47 → 0.49, 2016–2025).
Win expectancy is a logistic fit of wins on EPA margin over 6,036 completed games (it names the winner 86.5% of the time). These describe what happened; one game is not a forecast. Play-by-play credits the quarterback with every sack and dropback, so a bad line shows up in his numbers. Seasons 2016–2026, built 2026-09-14 01:25 UTC, from nflverse. Write-up:
Win expectancy is a logistic fit of wins on EPA margin over 6,036 completed games (it names the winner 86.5% of the time). These describe what happened; one game is not a forecast. Play-by-play credits the quarterback with every sack and dropback, so a bad line shows up in his numbers. Seasons 2016–2026, built 2026-09-14 01:25 UTC, from nflverse. Write-up:
backtests/nfl_game_quality/FINDINGS.md.