Draft Board

Expert consensus (FantasyPros ECR) with stock movement and analyst disagreement. Built from 36 snapshots; movement compares the last 4.

Consensus board may be stale. Last updated 2026-09-04 00:00 (23 days ago), past the 48h expected refresh. Capture runs daily at 12:00 UTC.
Redraft Dynasty Best ball All QB RB WR TE
#PlayerPosTeam ECR Move Range Excess
1 Josh Allen QB BUF 32.8 +0.5 29–38 -0.9
2 Lamar Jackson QB BAL 48.4 +1.6 39–54 +1.0
3 Jayden Daniels QB WAS 56.8 -0.5 47–64 +1.0
4 Drake Maye QB NE 57.8 -3.6 44–72 +3.9
5 Joe Burrow QB CIN 58.8 -7.1 53–63 -3.2
6 Jalen Hurts QB PHI 66.0 -4.8 61–71 -3.0
7 Caleb Williams QB CHI 70.4 +5.9 62–80 -1.3
8 Justin Herbert QB LAC 70.6 +6.4 63–76 -2.5
9 Trevor Lawrence QB JAC 77.0 -0.8 70–82 -3.9
10 Dak Prescott QB DAL 79.8 -3.0 71–86 -2.4
11 Jaxson Dart QB NYG 85.4 +6.8 76–97 -0.9
12 Brock Purdy QB SF 85.8 +6.9 77–92 -3.5
13 Patrick Mahomes II QB KC 91.0 +4.5 78–103 -0.6
14 Bo Nix QB DEN 99.0 -1.2 91–110 -3.6
15 Jared Goff QB DET 105.8 +0.4 99–113 -6.1
16 Kyler Murray QB MIN 108.4 +7.4 104–115 -7.5
17 Malik Willis QB MIA 110.6 +18.2 103–120 -5.5
18 Matthew Stafford QB LAR 111.6 -2.9 98–121 -2.5
19 Jordan Love QB GB 116.4 +1.9 112–120 -8.7
20 Tyler Shough QB NO 118.4 +5.4 108–132 -4.0
21 Baker Mayfield QB TB 119.8 -2.1 114–123 -8.3
22 C.J. Stroud QB HOU 140.8 -0.3 129–154 -5.4
23 Sam Darnold QB SEA 146.8 -7.0 132–168 -2.7
24 Cam Ward QB TEN 151.4 +10.1 145–156 -11.0
25 Daniel Jones QB IND 151.8 -7.8 138–176 -1.2
26 Bryce Young QB CAR 162.4 +14.8 148–188 -1.3
27 Aaron Rodgers QB PIT 180.4 -6.2 157–198 -1.4
28 Geno Smith QB NYJ 186.0 -20.4 166–215 -1.1
29 Jacoby Brissett QB ARI 196.8 -13.8 160–216 +0.5

Only one column here carries a tested signal. The rest is context. Everything below was measured over 296 position-weeks, 2021–2025.

Move — no predictive value
Change in consensus rank. Tested: correlation between movement and beating your own ranking is +0.02, surviving in one of five seasons and one of four positions. That is a null. The move is the consensus updating, so it is already priced. Shown because it is useful to know who is being talked about — not as a reason to draft anyone.
Excess — disagreement above normal for that slot
Analysts naturally disagree more about later picks (sd ≈ 0.98 + 0.094 × ECR), so raw spread makes elite players look contentious when they are near-unanimous. This is the residual.
Contentious — the one tested edge, and it is small
Flagged only for QB and RB, where contentious players modestly beat their ranking (QB corr +0.088, t=3.08; RB +0.057, t=3.05). At WR and TE the same signal is exactly zero (+0.004 and +0.002), so they are never flagged — disagreement there is noise about a distribution everyone roughly agrees on.

Use it as a tiebreaker between players you already rate similarly, never as a reason to reach. The effect is worth a fraction of a round, per-season t-stats run 0.75–2.32, and the direction is consistent but the size is not well pinned down.