Draft Board

Expert consensus (FantasyPros ECR) with stock movement and analyst disagreement. Built from 39 snapshots; movement compares the last 4.

Consensus board may be stale. Last updated 2026-09-25 00:00 (2 days ago), past the 48h expected refresh. Capture runs daily at 12:00 UTC.
Redraft Dynasty Best ball All QB RB WR TE
#PlayerPosTeam ECR Move Range Excess
1 Josh Allen QB BUF 21.6 -0.3 19–25 -6.0
2 Drake Maye QB NE 32.6 -4.5 25–49 -0.4
3 Lamar Jackson QB BAL 34.0 -0.6 25–51 -0.5
4 Joe Burrow QB CIN 38.4 +3.7 26–51 -0.3
5 Jayden Daniels QB WAS 41.8 -5.9 36–51 -4.7
6 Jalen Hurts QB PHI 47.0 +5.1 28–60 +0.3
7 Patrick Mahomes II QB KC 48.6 +6.4 42–59 -5.0
8 Justin Herbert QB LAC 49.4 -0.3 45–60 -5.5
9 Caleb Williams QB CHI 52.0 -0.6 30–96 +12.0 CONTENTIOUS
10 Trevor Lawrence QB JAC 57.0 +1.4 54–61 -8.8
11 Brock Purdy QB SF 62.0 +5.1 54–72 -5.5
12 Bo Nix QB DEN 73.6 +2.5 56–91 -2.1
13 Dak Prescott QB DAL 75.4 +8.0 60–96 -0.4
14 Jaxson Dart QB NYG 75.8 -7.2 56–110 +7.6 CONTENTIOUS
15 Jared Goff QB DET 89.6 +15.9 61–109 +0.9
16 Jordan Love QB GB 93.2 -0.9 84–109 -5.5
17 Baker Mayfield QB TB 108.6 +9.7 84–127 -2.7
18 Fernando Mendoza QB LV 118.4 -1.5 109–153 -0.2
19 Tyler Shough QB NO 122.0 +6.6 108–139 -5.9
20 Kyler Murray QB MIN 128.4 +6.5 112–142 -8.2
21 Matthew Stafford QB LAR 131.4 +8.0 87–154 +4.3
22 Sam Darnold QB SEA 133.6 +7.1 125–142 -12.4
23 Cam Ward QB TEN 133.6 -6.6 111–142 -7.3
24 C.J. Stroud QB HOU 135.0 -7.2 111–147 -6.6
25 Malik Willis QB MIA 135.8 -0.2 126–147 -10.5
26 Bryce Young QB CAR 136.0 +18.6 96–167 +4.9
27 Daniel Jones QB IND 145.0 +1.4 141–150 -16.7
28 Ty Simpson QB LAR 157.2 -1.1 147–166 -12.3
29 Michael Penix Jr. QB ATL 179.2 -2.8 154–215 +1.9
30 J.J. McCarthy QB MIN 184.2 +34.7 147–235 +9.3 CONTENTIOUS
31 Shedeur Sanders QB CLE 195.4 +8.7 167–222 -5.2

Only one column here carries a tested signal. The rest is context. Everything below was measured over 296 position-weeks, 2021–2025.

Move — no predictive value
Change in consensus rank. Tested: correlation between movement and beating your own ranking is +0.02, surviving in one of five seasons and one of four positions. That is a null. The move is the consensus updating, so it is already priced. Shown because it is useful to know who is being talked about — not as a reason to draft anyone.
Excess — disagreement above normal for that slot
Analysts naturally disagree more about later picks (sd ≈ 6.46 + 0.0931 × ECR), so raw spread makes elite players look contentious when they are near-unanimous. This is the residual.
Contentious — the one tested edge, and it is small
Flagged only for QB and RB, where contentious players modestly beat their ranking (QB corr +0.088, t=3.08; RB +0.057, t=3.05). At WR and TE the same signal is exactly zero (+0.004 and +0.002), so they are never flagged — disagreement there is noise about a distribution everyone roughly agrees on.

Use it as a tiebreaker between players you already rate similarly, never as a reason to reach. The effect is worth a fraction of a round, per-season t-stats run 0.75–2.32, and the direction is consistent but the size is not well pinned down.