Draft Board
Expert consensus (FantasyPros ECR) with stock movement and analyst disagreement. Built from 39 snapshots; movement compares the last 4.
Consensus board may be stale.
Last updated 2026-09-25 00:00 (2 days ago), past the
48h expected refresh.
Capture runs daily at 12:00 UTC.
| # | Player | Pos | Team | ECR | Move | Range | Excess | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Jahmyr Gibbs | RB | DET | 4.2 | +0.1 | 3–6 | -5.7 | |
| 2 | Bijan Robinson | RB | ATL | 4.2 | -0.4 | 3–5 | -6.1 | |
| 3 | Ashton Jeanty | RB | LV | 9.4 | +0.7 | 8–11 | -6.0 | |
| 4 | De'Von Achane | RB | MIA | 14.2 | +1.4 | 9–18 | -4.8 | |
| 5 | Jeremiyah Love | RB | ARI | 14.8 | -2.9 | 7–35 | +2.4 | |
| 6 | James Cook III | RB | BUF | 15.2 | +0.0 | 8–20 | -3.8 | |
| 7 | Omarion Hampton | RB | LAC | 17.6 | +1.0 | 13–22 | -5.0 | |
| 8 | Jonathan Taylor | RB | IND | 22.4 | -3.9 | 12–40 | +1.4 | |
| 9 | Kenneth Walker III | RB | KC | 22.8 | +5.8 | 16–29 | -4.3 | |
| 10 | Breece Hall | RB | NYJ | 32.8 | +3.1 | 21–54 | +2.2 | |
| 11 | Chase Brown | RB | CIN | 39.4 | +2.0 | 37–43 | -8.1 | |
| 12 | Christian McCaffrey | RB | SF | 52.2 | -0.8 | 23–65 | +4.0 | |
| 13 | Saquon Barkley | RB | PHI | 53.4 | +1.2 | 37–64 | -2.4 | |
| 14 | Quinshon Judkins | RB | CLE | 55.8 | -0.3 | 41–80 | +3.0 | |
| 15 | Kyren Williams | RB | LAR | 58.2 | -1.5 | 50–67 | -5.6 | |
| 16 | TreVeyon Henderson | RB | NE | 58.2 | -2.1 | 52–67 | -5.8 | |
| 17 | Jadarian Price | RB | SEA | 62.4 | +10.3 | 49–72 | -3.4 | |
| 18 | Javonte Williams | RB | DAL | 68.0 | +0.9 | 52–86 | -1.9 | |
| 19 | Bucky Irving | RB | TB | 73.8 | -9.9 | 62–90 | -3.4 | |
| 20 | Travis Etienne Jr. | RB | NO | 74.0 | -4.4 | 66–88 | -5.5 | |
| 21 | Derrick Henry | RB | BAL | 80.0 | -1.2 | 64–89 | -5.1 | |
| 22 | Cam Skattebo | RB | NYG | 81.4 | -10.3 | 67–90 | -5.6 | |
| 23 | Bhayshul Tuten | RB | JAC | 83.8 | -1.7 | 66–97 | -4.2 | |
| 24 | D'Andre Swift | RB | CHI | 87.2 | +1.2 | 77–101 | -6.3 | |
| 25 | Josh Jacobs | RB | GB | 94.2 | -15.4 | 71–129 | +4.1 | |
| 26 | David Montgomery | RB | HOU | 101.0 | +3.3 | 90–108 | -9.9 | |
| 27 | Jaylen Warren | RB | PIT | 108.8 | -2.4 | 88–131 | +1.5 | |
| 28 | Kyle Monangai | RB | CHI | 113.8 | +1.8 | 95–136 | +0.3 | |
| 29 | RJ Harvey | RB | DEN | 123.0 | -3.1 | 100–149 | +0.5 | |
| 30 | Chuba Hubbard | RB | CAR | 127.6 | +6.8 | 101–181 | +10.3 | CONTENTIOUS |
| 31 | Jonah Coleman | RB | DEN | 129.0 | +6.4 | 100–190 | +12.9 | CONTENTIOUS |
| 32 | Blake Corum | RB | LAR | 130.0 | -12.7 | 107–149 | -4.9 | |
| 33 | Rico Dowdle | RB | PIT | 135.2 | -0.6 | 129–140 | -14.8 | |
| 34 | Rhamondre Stevenson | RB | NE | 135.4 | -3.3 | 120–146 | -9.5 | |
| 35 | Jonathon Brooks | RB | CAR | 143.2 | -11.9 | 87–170 | +11.3 | CONTENTIOUS |
| 36 | Tony Pollard | RB | TEN | 146.6 | +0.5 | 113–181 | +2.8 | |
| 37 | Kenny Gainwell | RB | TB | 149.2 | -1.1 | 123–168 | -5.1 | |
| 38 | Zach Charbonnet | RB | SEA | 154.4 | -25.7 | 133–197 | +2.0 | |
| 39 | Jacory Croskey-Merritt | RB | WAS | 157.8 | -5.5 | 140–178 | -9.0 | |
| 40 | J.K. Dobbins | RB | DEN | 160.0 | -3.4 | 146–185 | -7.4 | |
| 41 | Rachaad White | RB | WAS | 160.2 | +2.2 | 136–190 | -3.7 | |
| 42 | Jordan Mason | RB | MIN | 163.6 | +1.2 | 158–181 | -12.9 | |
| 43 | Woody Marks | RB | HOU | 164.4 | +4.6 | 108–193 | +7.8 | CONTENTIOUS |
| 44 | Tyler Allgeier | RB | ARI | 172.8 | -1.7 | 144–197 | -1.5 | |
| 45 | Tyrone Tracy Jr. | RB | NYG | 177.4 | -8.0 | 146–219 | +1.2 | |
| 46 | Emmett Johnson | RB | KC | 181.2 | -8.0 | 153–200 | -5.5 | |
| 47 | Mike Washington Jr. | RB | LV | 181.8 | +6.1 | 160–241 | +10.9 | CONTENTIOUS |
| 48 | Chris Rodriguez Jr. | RB | JAC | 183.6 | -2.7 | 164–219 | -3.3 | |
| 49 | Dylan Sampson | RB | CLE | 186.4 | -3.0 | 164–216 | -1.8 | |
| 50 | Aaron Jones Sr. | RB | MIN | 186.6 | +4.5 | 156–210 | -1.4 | |
| 51 | Tyjae Spears | RB | TEN | 192.6 | +2.7 | 162–233 | +2.9 |
Only one column here carries a tested signal. The rest is context. Everything below was measured over 296 position-weeks, 2021–2025.
- Move — no predictive value
- Change in consensus rank. Tested: correlation between movement and beating your own ranking is +0.02, surviving in one of five seasons and one of four positions. That is a null. The move is the consensus updating, so it is already priced. Shown because it is useful to know who is being talked about — not as a reason to draft anyone.
- Excess — disagreement above normal for that slot
- Analysts naturally disagree more about later picks (sd ≈ 6.46 + 0.0931 × ECR), so raw spread makes elite players look contentious when they are near-unanimous. This is the residual.
- Contentious — the one tested edge, and it is small
-
Flagged only for QB and RB, where contentious players modestly beat
their ranking (QB corr +0.088, t=3.08; RB +0.057, t=3.05). At
WR and TE the same signal is exactly zero (+0.004 and +0.002), so
they are never flagged — disagreement there is noise about a distribution
everyone roughly agrees on.
Use it as a tiebreaker between players you already rate similarly, never as a reason to reach. The effect is worth a fraction of a round, per-season t-stats run 0.75–2.32, and the direction is consistent but the size is not well pinned down.