MLB Slate
2026-07-12 · probable pitchers, market lines & model context
Games today
15
First pitch
12:15 PM
Final
15
Moneyline model win rate 55.8% vs market close 56.7%.
Today's slate
15 games
| Time | Matchup | Probables (ERA · K/9) | Status | Market ML (A/H) | Total | Mkt H% | Model H% | Agreement |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12:15 PM |
Milwaukee Brewers 59-36
@ Pittsburgh Pirates 49-47
|
Jacob Misiorowski
· 1.88 · 13.0
Paul Skenes
· 3.77 · 10.3
|
Final
5–14
|
— | — | — | 44% | — |
| 1:35 PM |
Kansas City Royals 38-58
@ Baltimore Orioles 45-51
|
Seth Lugo
· 5.17 · 7.0
Shane Baz
· 4.11 · 7.7
|
Final
2–8
|
+136 / -148 | 9.5 | 59% | 55% | model leans away |
| 1:35 PM |
New York Yankees 53-42
@ Washington Nationals 48-48
|
Will Warren
· 4.06 · 9.1
Cade Cavalli
· 3.02 · 10.6
|
Final
5–3
|
+108 / -117 | 9.5 | 53% | 48% | model leans away |
| 1:40 PM |
Boston Red Sox 45-48
@ New York Mets 40-56
|
Payton Tolle
· 3.03 · 10.4
Zach Thornton
· 2.60 · 7.8
|
Final/10
3–2
|
-110 / +102 | 8 | 49% | 45% | model leans away |
| 1:40 PM |
Chicago Cubs 53-42
@ Cincinnati Reds 43-51
|
Matthew Boyd
· 3.91 · 6.8
Andrew Abbott
· 4.69 · 7.2
|
Final
8–4
|
-125 / +115 | 9 | 45% | 46% | agrees within 3 pts |
| 1:40 PM |
Cleveland Guardians 50-46
@ Miami Marlins 52-44
|
Joey Cantillo
· 4.01 · 9.6
Max Meyer
· 2.68 · 9.8
|
Final
5–2
|
-110 / +102 | 8 | 49% | 54% | model leans home |
| 1:40 PM |
Philadelphia Phillies 53-43
@ Detroit Tigers 44-51
|
Zack Wheeler
· 3.00 · 10.7
Tarik Skubal
· 2.71 · 10.6
|
Final
5–0
|
+117 / -127 | 7 | 55% | 53% | agrees within 3 pts |
| 1:40 PM |
Seattle Mariners 47-49
@ Tampa Bay Rays 56-37
|
Emerson Hancock
· 3.53 · 8.1
Ian Seymour
· 4.44 · 11.8
|
Final
8–2
|
+133 / -145 | 8 | 58% | 59% | agrees within 3 pts |
| 2:10 PM |
Los Angeles Angels 38-58
@ Minnesota Twins 47-49
|
José Soriano
· 4.66 · 5.3
Taj Bradley
· 3.73 · 10.3
|
Final
2–4
|
+114 / -124 | 9.5 | 54% | 56% | agrees within 3 pts |
| 2:10 PM |
Athletics 41-54
@ Chicago White Sox 49-45
|
J.T. Ginn
· 3.59 · 8.0
Noah Schultz
· 6.41 · 8.2
|
Final
1–9
|
+133 / -144 | 9 | 58% | 54% | model leans away |
| 2:15 PM |
Atlanta Braves 54-40
@ St. Louis Cardinals 50-44
|
JR Ritchie
· 5.73 · 8.3
Dustin May
· 4.77 · 9.0
|
Final
4–3
|
+120 / -130 | 7.5 | 56% | 53% | agrees within 3 pts |
| 2:35 PM |
Houston Astros 47-50
@ Texas Rangers 48-47
|
Cristian Javier
· 5.80 · 7.6
Jacob deGrom
· 4.20 · 11.1
|
Final
5–6
|
+126 / -136 | 9 | 57% | 60% | model leans home |
| 4:05 PM |
Colorado Rockies 39-58
@ San Francisco Giants 40-55
|
Michael Lorenzen
· 7.30 · 6.4
Trevor McDonald
· 5.12 · 7.3
|
Final
1–3
|
+133 / -144 | 9 | 58% | 59% | agrees within 3 pts |
| 4:10 PM |
Arizona Diamondbacks 48-47
@ Los Angeles Dodgers 61-35
|
Zac Gallen
· 6.22 · 5.5
Emmet Sheehan
· 4.79 · 10.3
|
Final
5–3
|
+196 / -216 | 9.5 | 67% | 62% | model leans away |
| 4:10 PM |
Toronto Blue Jays 45-50
@ San Diego Padres 47-48
|
Kevin Gausman
· 4.51 · 9.3
Germán Márquez
· 3.00 · 8.0
|
Final
4–5
|
-126 / +116 | 9 | 45% | 51% | model leans home |