MLB Slate
2026-07-11 · probable pitchers, market lines & model context
Games today
16
First pitch
12:05 PM
Final
16
Moneyline model win rate 55.8% vs market close 56.7%.
Today's slate
16 games
| Time | Matchup | Probables (ERA · K/9) | Status | Market ML (A/H) | Total | Mkt H% | Model H% | Agreement |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12:05 PM |
Milwaukee Brewers 59-34
@ Pittsburgh Pirates 47-47
|
TBD
TBD
|
Final
6–7
|
+104 / -113 | 8.5 | 52% | — | — |
| 2:10 PM |
Los Angeles Angels 38-57
@ Minnesota Twins 46-49
|
Ryan Johnson
· 4.68 · 7.5
Joe Ryan
· 4.07 · 10.1
|
Final
3–5
|
+153 / -167 | 9 | 62% | 62% | agrees within 3 pts |
| 2:10 PM |
Athletics 41-53
@ Chicago White Sox 48-45
|
Gage Jump
· 5.56 · 9.9
Bryan Hudson
· 5.40 · 7.2
|
Final
0–1
|
+111 / -120 | 8.5 | 54% | 56% | agrees within 3 pts |
| 4:05 PM |
New York Yankees 52-42
@ Washington Nationals 48-47
|
Cam Schlittler
· 1.95 · 11.1
Miles Mikolas
· 8.06 · 5.4
|
Final
4–2
|
-188 / +172 | 9 | 36% | 37% | agrees within 3 pts |
| 4:05 PM |
Colorado Rockies 39-57
@ San Francisco Giants 39-55
|
Kyle Freeland
· 6.65 · 7.2
Tyler Mahle
· 3.99 · 8.3
|
Final
2–4
|
+128 / -139 | 8.5 | 57% | 64% | model leans home |
| 4:10 PM |
Boston Red Sox 44-48
@ New York Mets 40-55
|
TBD
Freddy Peralta
· 4.14 · 8.3
|
Final
4–0
|
+126 / -137 | 7.5 | 57% | 49% | model leans away |
| 4:10 PM |
Cleveland Guardians 49-46
@ Miami Marlins 52-43
|
Tanner Bibee
· 4.34 · 6.8
Eury Pérez
· 1.38 · 9.7
|
Final
4–1
|
+137 / -149 | 7.5 | 59% | 54% | model leans away |
| 4:10 PM |
Seattle Mariners 47-48
@ Tampa Bay Rays 55-37
|
Logan Gilbert
· 3.73 · 9.9
Griffin Jax
· 3.32 · 9.3
|
Final
1–6
|
-101 / -107 | 7 | 51% | 51% | agrees within 3 pts |
| 4:15 PM |
Milwaukee Brewers 59-34
@ Pittsburgh Pirates 47-47
|
Shane Drohan
· 5.07 · 9.0
Bubba Chandler
· 4.72 · 8.1
|
Final
2–3
|
-134 / +123 | 9 | 44% | 40% | model leans away |
| 6:10 PM |
Philadelphia Phillies 52-43
@ Detroit Tigers 44-50
|
Cristopher Sánchez
· 5.76 · 7.9
Casey Mize
· 3.87 · 7.7
|
Final
4–2
|
— | — | — | 56% | — |
| 7:05 PM |
Kansas City Royals 38-57
@ Baltimore Orioles 44-51
|
Noah Cameron
· 4.44 · 7.8
Kyle Bradish
· 4.12 · 8.2
|
Final
1–6
|
— | — | — | 60% | — |
| 7:05 PM |
Houston Astros 46-50
@ Texas Rangers 48-46
|
Peter Lambert
· 3.82 · 8.9
Kumar Rocker
· 4.49 · 8.2
|
Final
9–3
|
— | — | — | 52% | — |
| 7:10 PM |
Chicago Cubs 52-42
@ Cincinnati Reds 43-50
|
Javier Assad
· 3.71 · 6.2
Nick Lodolo
· 4.97 · 6.9
|
Final
5–3
|
— | — | — | 47% | — |
| 7:15 PM |
Atlanta Braves 54-39
@ St. Louis Cardinals 49-44
|
Reynaldo López
· 6.92 · 6.9
Matthew Liberatore
· 5.23 · 8.9
|
Final
1–4
|
— | — | — | 48% | — |
| 8:40 PM |
Toronto Blue Jays 45-49
@ San Diego Padres 46-48
|
Trey Yesavage
· 3.76 · 9.1
Walker Buehler
· 4.69 · 7.7
|
Final
7–8
|
-105 / -103 | 8 | 50% | 48% | agrees within 3 pts |
| 9:10 PM |
Arizona Diamondbacks 47-47
@ Los Angeles Dodgers 61-34
|
Brandon Pfaadt
· 3.38 · 5.8
Yoshinobu Yamamoto
· 2.53 · 8.9
|
Final
9–2
|
+271 / -307 | 8.5 | 74% | 69% | model leans away |