MLB Slate
2026-09-27 · probable pitchers, market lines & model context
Games today
15
First pitch
1:05 PM
Final
15
Moneyline model win rate 55.8% vs market close 56.7%.
Today's slate
15 games
| Time | Matchup | Probables (ERA · K/9) | Status | Market ML (A/H) | Total | Mkt H% | Model H% | Agreement |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1:05 PM |
Baltimore Orioles 79-82
@ New York Yankees 93-68
|
Shane Baz
· 4.11 · 7.7
Elmer Rodriguez
· 4.70 · 6.3
|
Canceled
0–0
|
+105 / -114 | 7.5 | 52% | 55% | model leans home |
| 1:05 PM |
New York Mets 74-87
@ Washington Nationals 76-85
|
Sean Manaea
· 5.05 · 8.1
Jake Irvin
· 5.52 · 9.4
|
Final
4–6
|
-105 / -103 | 8.5 | 50% | 46% | model leans away |
| 2:30 PM |
Tampa Bay Rays 98-63
@ Philadelphia Phillies 87-74
|
Nick Martinez
· 3.20 · 5.4
Zack Wheeler
· 3.00 · 10.7
|
Final
3–7
|
+179 / -197 | 6.5 | 65% | 57% | model leans away |
| 3:05 PM |
Chicago Cubs 88-73
@ Boston Red Sox 87-74
|
Matthew Boyd
· 3.91 · 6.8
Patrick Sandoval
· 5.28 · 9.4
|
Final
6–2
|
-114 / +105 | 7.5 | 48% | 48% | agrees within 3 pts |
| 3:05 PM |
Houston Astros 80-81
@ Athletics 64-97
|
Peter Lambert
· 3.82 · 8.9
Brady Basso
· 7.56 · 6.5
|
Final
9–0
|
-195 / +178 | 10 | 35% | 44% | model leans home |
| 3:05 PM |
Los Angeles Dodgers 99-62
@ San Francisco Giants 65-96
|
TBD
Carson Seymour
· 0.00 · 9.0
|
Final/10
5–1
|
-241 / +217 | 8.5 | 30% | 40% | model leans home |
| 3:07 PM |
Cincinnati Reds 75-86
@ Toronto Blue Jays 78-83
|
Brandon Williamson
· 5.53 · 6.2
Trey Yesavage
· 3.76 · 9.1
|
Final
1–5
|
+150 / -164 | 8.5 | 61% | 61% | agrees within 3 pts |
| 3:10 PM |
Atlanta Braves 94-67
@ Miami Marlins 79-82
|
JR Ritchie
· 5.73 · 8.3
Janson Junk
· 4.21 · 6.6
|
Final
3–5
|
+108 / -117 | 8 | 53% | 49% | model leans away |
| 3:10 PM |
Pittsburgh Pirates 81-80
@ Detroit Tigers 76-85
|
Jared Jones
· 3.59 · 11.0
River Ryan
· 4.15 · 12.5
|
Final
4–2
|
+103 / -111 | 7.5 | 52% | 52% | agrees within 3 pts |
| 3:10 PM |
Cleveland Guardians 85-76
@ Kansas City Royals 68-93
|
Parker Messick
· 2.56 · 9.3
Daniel Lynch IV
· 6.53 · 4.7
|
Final
2–3
|
-102 / -106 | 8 | 50% | 42% | model leans away |
| 3:10 PM |
Colorado Rockies 58-103
@ Chicago White Sox 83-78
|
Kyle Freeland
· 6.65 · 7.2
Anthony Kay
· 4.53 · 7.6
|
Final
2–4
|
+140 / -153 | 8 | 59% | 68% | model leans home |
| 3:10 PM |
St. Louis Cardinals 77-84
@ Milwaukee Brewers 102-59
|
Andre Pallante
· 3.91 · 6.1
Logan Henderson
· 2.44 · 9.9
|
Final
4–6
|
+183 / -201 | 7 | 66% | 74% | model leans home |
| 3:10 PM |
Texas Rangers 80-81
@ Minnesota Twins 76-85
|
MacKenzie Gore
· 4.74 · 9.2
Zebby Matthews
· 4.90 · 8.0
|
Final
4–6
|
-110 / +102 | 8 | 49% | 49% | agrees within 3 pts |
| 3:10 PM |
Los Angeles Angels 62-99
@ Seattle Mariners 75-86
|
Yusei Kikuchi
· 4.92 · 8.9
Logan Gilbert
· 3.73 · 9.9
|
Final
3–7
|
+147 / -160 | 7 | 61% | 60% | agrees within 3 pts |
| 3:10 PM |
Arizona Diamondbacks 86-75
@ San Diego Padres 90-71
|
Michael Soroka
· 3.29 · 8.8
Michael King
· 3.21 · 7.7
|
Final
4–9
|
-146 / +135 | 8 | 42% | 59% | model leans home |